(01-10-2017, 04:55 PM)THis SomeGuy Wrote:Quote:Are you saying British cotton consumption and pig iron consumption peaked around 1792? Seriously? Are you high?
Likewise, the trade in pepper is much larger today that it was in the Dutch Golden Age, and yet it was clearly a leading sector then, and not a leading sector now.
Thanks for the link. I thought you had gotten the physical book (which gives you quite an advantage as I read it 15 years ago)
I see where you are getting at. M&T were looking at growth in percentage terms (see chapter 6 for the data). Maximum growth will always occur early in the growth period because it is off a small base. Their methods are really identifying the innovation phase of the leading sector growth curve (innovation wave).
Their cotton measure reflects the textile innovations of the 1760's and they show a peak soon after in the 1780's. There last date from that table I linked to is 1973, which corresponds to the peak growth for the information economy leading sectors. If you measure by percentage growth and look as PCs as the fundamental measure the peak probably was in the early 1970's. The first recognizable PCs came out then. Output must have grown from zero to positive at this time, generating an infinite growth rate and so a "peak" in the IT leading sector.
What I am getting at is the 2030 K-wave "peak" by this measure will reflect the recent development of a new, as yet undiscovered, leading sector. It is based on a future events that have not yet happened. So on what basis are you predicting this innovation at an earlier time? Your comments so far seem to have been about the IT. THis sector tha peaked around 1973. These are irrelevant. I am not sure you understand the process used to arrive at the 2030 date. There is a difference between understanding the M&T concepts and being able to apply them. Warren will understand this. It is the difference between understanding the material in the chapter and being able to do all the problems at the end of the chapter.
In closure, your assessment of the M&T cycle is not based on consideration of any economic indicators (K-waves are economic) but simply on your subjective perception of global politics. You aren't really applying M&T because you equate preparation for top great power status on the part of China over the 1980's and 1990's as evidence of agenda-setting, while ignoring preparation for top great power status on the part of Russia in the 1920's and 1930's, because it doesn't fit the model. How does one count but not the other. M&T resolved this issue using empirical measures. You have provided none.