Has the regeneracy arrived?

[Bob Butler 54]

We're getting into a striped post here.  I'll answer a some points, but I'm not a huge fan of the striped style.

(05-16-2016, 08:05 AM)Kinser79 Wrote: It is conceivable that the saeculum as we understand it requires certain material conditions which if not met would cause the pattern to break down.  That being said a long term study of world history would indicate that history is not a liner progression, despite what many Whig Historians would want us to believe.  Therefore a cycle will always develop eventually.  It could have two strokes or four, or even six (though that would probably stretch the lifespan of humans past the 120 year mark).

I see technological advances as a significant factor in forcing culture change.  We've had that for quite a while, keeping a steady pressure on cultures, making sure there won't be a lengthy steady state.  It may be that over the period of Anglo-American development the technology based pressure has been steady enough that the four cycle pattern was stable.  At this point I see factors like computer networks and nukes are actually increasing the pressure.  The 1960s period was as intense as a crisis, might have some aspects of a crisis.  The recent unraveling might have some aspects of a high in an intense resistance to additional change and big government.  I don't see a stop to cultural mood changes.  If there are four basic moods -- high, awakening, unraveling, crisis -- I don't see getting stuck in one and unchanging.  After a generation or so things are apt to change.  I'm just not seeing the 4 stroke pattern as still active and think 20 20 hindsight will be required to spot any new pattern that might or might not develop.

Bob Butler Wrote:As I've said many times, I see September 11th as a Trigger for a failed regeneracy and crisis.

(05-16-2016, 08:05 AM)Kinser79 Wrote: And you were wrong then, and wrong now if you still believe so.  The simple fact of the matter is that in 2001 the old civic generation still had some lingering political and social power, and the new one was busy learning their multiplication tables.  It is my feeling that the turning cannot change until at least half of the generation that is supposed to be in rising adulthood (I usually call it young adulthood) has to be in that stage.  Assuming S&H's date for the start of the Millennial Generation, and assuming that Millies are in fact a Civic generation the oldest ones would be 19, and the youngest should have just finished being born on 11 September 2001.

Different people emphasize different aspects of the S&H system.  You are emphasizing the generation personality aspect.  I emphasize the political mood and values changing aspect.  With the four stroke pattern breaking down, I don't think either of us might be entirely convincing.

Bob Butler Wrote:Bush 43 attempted to implement a new set of values including neocolonialism and spreading western values at gunpoint.

(05-16-2016, 08:05 AM)Kinser79 Wrote: Yes, and he failed, just as attempting to change someone else's values always does.  People change their values because they want to (for whatever reason), they never change them because someone else wants them to.  In fact if anything attempting to change the values of others makes them seek to "double down" on those values even if that course of action is self-destructive.

Through the bulk of the Anglo-American development, it has been the progressives who have achieved the regeneracy and driven the agenda.  For the most part their agendas have succeeded.  Bush 43 tried as a conservative to push a different sort of agenda and failed.  I have described it as a 'false regeneracy' and 'failed crisis'.  I can pretty much agree with the above paragraph as to how and why he failed.  We're seeing the history in a similar way.  We're disagreeing on how to label it.

(05-16-2016, 08:05 AM)Kinser79 Wrote: Not quite.  We were in a 4T, but the regeneracy stalled, as such the best thing possible was to slam on the breaks.  Not only that he had to deal with a Boomer Dominated Congress and of all the generations the one most likely to "be stuck in the 90s" is in fact the Boomers.  Since 2010 Xers have taken over the House and are making headway in the Senate.  It is unfortunate that the President is a Democrat because Xers tend to be overwhelmingly Republican, and when not Republican Natural Conservatives.''

Stalled regeneracy rather than False regeneracy?  Different language, but yah...  Again, I'm more into the values shifts than generational stereotypes.  I see stagnation and inaction.  I'll put the turning boundaries where the mood and values change, not when certain age groups start getting into office.

(05-16-2016, 08:05 AM)Kinser79 Wrote: That is the S&H narrative.  However, it is only a narrative--and remember they did write their books to sell and sell primarily to Boomers.  What happens if the "new values systems" from the 2T are destructive, stupid or just plain garbage?  What happens then?  S&H are silent about that.

Well, perhaps S&H were silent on stupid and destructive 2T values as such hasn't happened recently.  I see the anti-war, racial equality, gender equality and environmental changes of the recent 2T as necessary and appropriate.  I see neocolonialism and changing cultures at gunpoint as destructive, stupid and just plain garbage, but Bush 43 tried his push in a late 3T, not 2T.

Bob Butler Wrote:Traditionally it is the progressive values that are enabled by the regeneracy, while the conservatives attempt to maintain the status quo.  If someone like Bernie Sanders could get the presidency with a working majority in Congress, this sort of pattern could repeat.  

(05-16-2016, 08:05 AM)Kinser79 Wrote: I think you assume that there were social problems solved in the 2T that were not solved.

Guilty.  Wrote too fast.  Didn't word it properly.  The problems of the last 2T were not completely solved.  Red resistance to change capped what could be done.  Still, significant progress was made, enough for Future Shock.  As a broad principle, I don't think any crisis or awakening will completely solve anything.  There will always be leftovers and polishing to be done.  Periods of transition can only flow so long before the perceived need for change fades and an odd numbered turning is apt to kick in.

Getting edit dizzy.  Might pick it up again later.