The period since 2000 can very much be seen as a political crisis. The 2000 election campaign was solidly 3T. The country was finishing a two decade period of peace and prosperity. Social indicators were improving. These decades were the opposite of the tumultuous sixties and seventies. Adverse trends such as rising inflation, frequent recessions (in 1970, 1973, 1980, 1981), rising crime and worsening budget deficits had reversed itself. The Korean and Vietnam wars had not been followed by more like them in the 27 years since 1973 and we had won the Cold War. Wages had finally started to rise, especially for black people.
In 2000 the candidate with fewer votes won the presidency. The new president had run on a moderate program featuring a "humble foreign policy". I recall posting at the T4T site my approval of the new foreign policy team of Cheney, Rumsfeld and Powell, who I believed had done a good job in the Gulf War. Boy was I wrong. Why was I wrong, because I was extrapolating the past (a 3T) into a future (4T) that would be nothing like it.
This country is a radically different place today than it was in 2000. Back in 2000, Americans could still believe that we were the good guys. Americans could see Soviet demands as ridiculous and could easily see how we had the better argument. The Soviet collapse proved our ideology works whereas theirs did not. Today many Americans no longer feel that our leaders are usually right, or even mostly right.
Before 2001 we had no state security apparatus (SS). We did not arrest, incarcerate or even torture people without charging them with a crime or any sort of due process in 2000. Now we do. Before 2001 there would be a debate before we engaged in war. The first Iraq war was discussed and voted on. it was framed as a limited war with clear objective in accordance with the "Powell doctrine". Today we start a third war in Iraq without even giving and the Powell doctrine, forget about it.
Our politics is crazy and broken, the people are offered no choice. In 1952 and 1968 we had a choice to continue or end the Korean and Vietnam wars. We chose to end them and they were ended. This year were have a choice of Clinton who wants status quo in Iraq III (gradually escalation) and Trump calls for putting the Iraq III on steroids Web live in a world in which the Russian leader makes more sense that our own leaders, and the "the hawk party" now embraces Russia.
The economy has been in a downtrend since 2000. The 2001-2007 expansion was the worst since the Depression, until the current expansion began, which was even worse. The stock market is about where it was in 2000 in terms of constant dollars, and is currently very overvalued and likely to fall in the near future. Our surplus was quickly converted into an enormous deficit. We have racked up an enormous national debt mostly to fund wars and tax cuts. On the other hand, significant expansions of the welfare state were created by both parties.
What I am getting at is the last 16 years have shown a much greater amount of political change than the twenty years before. You have to go back to the 2T to match the level of political change we have seen. The post-2000 period truly seems to be a "political moment" as the 1964-1980 period was. Political moments tend to correspond closely to S&H "social moments", that is 2T's and 4T's.
Generationally, those in power in 2001 were born in the years centered on 1942, and had come of political age in 1964. Those in power today were born in the years around 1954 and had come of political age in 1976. That is since 2000 the "average leader" have been those born from 1942 to 1954, and who came of age in 1964-1976. This is they are prophets and play the leader role in 4T, implying that the people since 2000 has been a 4T.
After 2020, the average leader will have come of age in 1980. After 2020, a new generation, who views of political will have been forged by the Reagan revolution, will be coming to power. Politically this generation would be a nomad one, and the era they will create would be a 1T. Now if one considers the 1980-1984 period as a continuation of the 1964-1980 political/social moment, then those would make the generation coming to power after 2024 a Nomad generation. Either way this current 4T should be ending in the next 4-8 years, and Howe is planning to come out with a 1T book.
In 2000 the candidate with fewer votes won the presidency. The new president had run on a moderate program featuring a "humble foreign policy". I recall posting at the T4T site my approval of the new foreign policy team of Cheney, Rumsfeld and Powell, who I believed had done a good job in the Gulf War. Boy was I wrong. Why was I wrong, because I was extrapolating the past (a 3T) into a future (4T) that would be nothing like it.
This country is a radically different place today than it was in 2000. Back in 2000, Americans could still believe that we were the good guys. Americans could see Soviet demands as ridiculous and could easily see how we had the better argument. The Soviet collapse proved our ideology works whereas theirs did not. Today many Americans no longer feel that our leaders are usually right, or even mostly right.
Before 2001 we had no state security apparatus (SS). We did not arrest, incarcerate or even torture people without charging them with a crime or any sort of due process in 2000. Now we do. Before 2001 there would be a debate before we engaged in war. The first Iraq war was discussed and voted on. it was framed as a limited war with clear objective in accordance with the "Powell doctrine". Today we start a third war in Iraq without even giving and the Powell doctrine, forget about it.
Our politics is crazy and broken, the people are offered no choice. In 1952 and 1968 we had a choice to continue or end the Korean and Vietnam wars. We chose to end them and they were ended. This year were have a choice of Clinton who wants status quo in Iraq III (gradually escalation) and Trump calls for putting the Iraq III on steroids Web live in a world in which the Russian leader makes more sense that our own leaders, and the "the hawk party" now embraces Russia.
The economy has been in a downtrend since 2000. The 2001-2007 expansion was the worst since the Depression, until the current expansion began, which was even worse. The stock market is about where it was in 2000 in terms of constant dollars, and is currently very overvalued and likely to fall in the near future. Our surplus was quickly converted into an enormous deficit. We have racked up an enormous national debt mostly to fund wars and tax cuts. On the other hand, significant expansions of the welfare state were created by both parties.
What I am getting at is the last 16 years have shown a much greater amount of political change than the twenty years before. You have to go back to the 2T to match the level of political change we have seen. The post-2000 period truly seems to be a "political moment" as the 1964-1980 period was. Political moments tend to correspond closely to S&H "social moments", that is 2T's and 4T's.
Generationally, those in power in 2001 were born in the years centered on 1942, and had come of political age in 1964. Those in power today were born in the years around 1954 and had come of political age in 1976. That is since 2000 the "average leader" have been those born from 1942 to 1954, and who came of age in 1964-1976. This is they are prophets and play the leader role in 4T, implying that the people since 2000 has been a 4T.
After 2020, the average leader will have come of age in 1980. After 2020, a new generation, who views of political will have been forged by the Reagan revolution, will be coming to power. Politically this generation would be a nomad one, and the era they will create would be a 1T. Now if one considers the 1980-1984 period as a continuation of the 1964-1980 political/social moment, then those would make the generation coming to power after 2024 a Nomad generation. Either way this current 4T should be ending in the next 4-8 years, and Howe is planning to come out with a 1T book.