[X_4AD_84] No, not yet. It has not arrived. There has not been anything sufficient to unify around. I'm not suggesting 100% of the people will become aligned. But I do believe a substantial majority will. We'll know it when we see it.
[Mike]This concept of unity has been misleading forum members for 16 years. The unity is formed around the successful faction in the intra-societal conflict that forms the core of the 4T. That is it happens AFTER the conflict ends, and the ideology of the winning faction becomes the ideology about which unification occurs.
The resolution of this conflict can occur at anything during the 4T or even after. It can happen early, e.g. 1781, which was closer to the start than the end of the 1773-1794 4T. It can happen late, e.g. 1876*, which was in the 1865-1886 1T. For the last 4T, unification came in 1942 with WW II.
It is abundantly clear that this conflict is still going on now and unification is in the future. According to S&H's Civil War dating, this can actually happen after the 4T is over, so we can conclude nothing about the timing of the current 4T based on the absence of unity.
Now I do not agree with S&H's Civil War dates. I prefer Dave Krein's 1860-1877 date, since this corresponds to the values given in the literature. In this case unification would always be a 4T phenomenon, which can happen as late as the end of the 4T. In fact, one can argue that this unification, as signified by the deal made to resolve the 1876 election (end Reconstruction in exchange for letting the Republican candidate who did not win the popular vote become president) ended the 4T when the troops were withdrawn in 1877.
For the current 4T, we have had two opportunities for unification so far. In 2001 we had 911. The Red faction got the credit for the response (WoT) which was seen as unsuccessful by some as early as 2002 (Tora Bora) and by most people by 2006 (Dem landslide leading to Rumsfeld getting axed). In 2008 we had the financial crisis. The Blue faction got the credit for the response (Wall St. bailout and stimulus) which was advertised as preventing the worst-case situation of 10% unemployment. It was seen as unsuccessful by some in 2009 when the worst case unemployment happened anyways and by most people in 2010 (the 2010 landslide).
The 2016 election has seen the phenomenon of Donald Trump, a Republican nominee who has utterly rejected the core ideology of the Republican party since 1980. Such an unbelievable situation suggests things are different now, implying that some sort of resolution will come soon, probably in the next presidential term, followed by a rally around the winner that will move us into the 1T.
I think it will take the following form. In the next few years a crisis will occur, it might be another financial panic, a terrorist attack, an environmental catastrophe, etc. The crisis will either be addressed successfully or not. If it is addressed, unity will form around the faction seen as responsible for performing the successful policy, probably the faction represented by the president. If it is not addressed, unity will form around the faction opposed to the faction seen as responsible for failing to address the crisis. In this case the solution will actually be implemented in the 1T.
*The Civil War did not resolve the issues of the the Civil War as shown by what I call the Klan Wars (1866-1876) which followed immediately after. The Klan wars which resulted in nearly 2000 killed in 177 separate episodes of internal sociopolitical instability. This period was the third most deadly episode of internal conflict after the Civil and Revolutionary wars.
[Mike]This concept of unity has been misleading forum members for 16 years. The unity is formed around the successful faction in the intra-societal conflict that forms the core of the 4T. That is it happens AFTER the conflict ends, and the ideology of the winning faction becomes the ideology about which unification occurs.
The resolution of this conflict can occur at anything during the 4T or even after. It can happen early, e.g. 1781, which was closer to the start than the end of the 1773-1794 4T. It can happen late, e.g. 1876*, which was in the 1865-1886 1T. For the last 4T, unification came in 1942 with WW II.
It is abundantly clear that this conflict is still going on now and unification is in the future. According to S&H's Civil War dating, this can actually happen after the 4T is over, so we can conclude nothing about the timing of the current 4T based on the absence of unity.
Now I do not agree with S&H's Civil War dates. I prefer Dave Krein's 1860-1877 date, since this corresponds to the values given in the literature. In this case unification would always be a 4T phenomenon, which can happen as late as the end of the 4T. In fact, one can argue that this unification, as signified by the deal made to resolve the 1876 election (end Reconstruction in exchange for letting the Republican candidate who did not win the popular vote become president) ended the 4T when the troops were withdrawn in 1877.
For the current 4T, we have had two opportunities for unification so far. In 2001 we had 911. The Red faction got the credit for the response (WoT) which was seen as unsuccessful by some as early as 2002 (Tora Bora) and by most people by 2006 (Dem landslide leading to Rumsfeld getting axed). In 2008 we had the financial crisis. The Blue faction got the credit for the response (Wall St. bailout and stimulus) which was advertised as preventing the worst-case situation of 10% unemployment. It was seen as unsuccessful by some in 2009 when the worst case unemployment happened anyways and by most people in 2010 (the 2010 landslide).
The 2016 election has seen the phenomenon of Donald Trump, a Republican nominee who has utterly rejected the core ideology of the Republican party since 1980. Such an unbelievable situation suggests things are different now, implying that some sort of resolution will come soon, probably in the next presidential term, followed by a rally around the winner that will move us into the 1T.
I think it will take the following form. In the next few years a crisis will occur, it might be another financial panic, a terrorist attack, an environmental catastrophe, etc. The crisis will either be addressed successfully or not. If it is addressed, unity will form around the faction seen as responsible for performing the successful policy, probably the faction represented by the president. If it is not addressed, unity will form around the faction opposed to the faction seen as responsible for failing to address the crisis. In this case the solution will actually be implemented in the 1T.
*The Civil War did not resolve the issues of the the Civil War as shown by what I call the Klan Wars (1866-1876) which followed immediately after. The Klan wars which resulted in nearly 2000 killed in 177 separate episodes of internal sociopolitical instability. This period was the third most deadly episode of internal conflict after the Civil and Revolutionary wars.