Fighting The Fourth Reich

[Kinser79]

(08-28-2017, 05:49 AM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote: Kinser

I’ve generally found that people will make predictions that reflect their values. The one question is whether the predictions are really predictions or dogma. Do you change the theory to reflect reality, or try to alter one’s view of reality to confirm the theory. For example, the West with its capitalist leaning theories have tended to favor a free press, where the East with its Communist theory favored censorship and propaganda. That is one way to measure the worth of a system, whether it is close enough to scientific to embrace reality, or whether you need to deny reality.

I can't speak for you but I often change my theory to reflect the reality. Which is right and proper. That is why I find it troubling that what passes for a left these days is most ademate about instituting censorship online, they already control most of the legacy media. That tells me that their position is extremely weak.

Quote:The global warming alarmists have their science.

No they don't. If they did have the science to back their alarmism then they wouldn't be alarmist. It is a scientific fact that in recorded history there has been oscillation of warm periods and cold periods.

Quote:The Arctic ice is melting. Historically, when the Arctic goes, the Antarctic follows.

Then explain why sea ice is at record levels. And I mean record high levels.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-09-14/re...ce/5742668

If this ice is melting then it should be at record low levels, but it is not.

Quote: With less light being reflected off ice, there is a large temperature jump up with associated extinctions and the like. The denialists of course disagree. For me, the key is the Arctic. If what is happening continues to happen, there will be a political kickback at some point. Reality should hopefully play a large role in this.

Anyone with a brain already knows that white reflects heat (and light) while darker colors (say blue ocean water) absorb it. What is discounted is that in warmer periods there is much more oceanic evaporation causing a larger portion of cloud cover which also reflects solar radiation. And that is before we even get into solar minimum/maximum cycles. If the sun isn't generating the heat and light to start with then it doesn't matter if the colors on the surface is white/light or dark.

Quote:And, sure, there have been other climate shifts in the past, but none have opened the northwest passage in historical times. None have melted this much ice. None have begun to approach the current extinction rate. Partisanship will effect your blinders. This one is too big.

Given the record amount of sea ice I don't foresee the North West passage opening up either. As to extinctions, mass extinctions seem to happen on a regular interval. 99.9% of all species on this planet have eventually gone extinct. I fail to see your point.

Quote:A lot of predictions of revolutions and civil wars have been flying around. If you buy into fixed clockwork S&H and that Industrial Age patterns will still persist, another might be due.

http://generational-theory.com/forum/thr...l#pid23006

That is my general theory as to how the mega-saeculum, saeculum and micro-turnings work. Is it a hard and fast clockwork? No. It is more easily understood to be like a tide chart. One can easily use one but it can be off as much as a quarter hour based on other variables.

Quote: I’d recommend that instead of blindly predicting violence, one should watch the spirals of violence carefully. Is there a spiral building?

Yes. Do you not even watch the Tee-Vee "news"? As to the issues surrounding it, it is between American Patriots lead by Donald John Trump vs the Ultra-Leftist scum best represented by Antifa types. Don't be fooled by the deranged ramblings of Alphabet Soup, this is where the spiral is located, these are the factions that will end up fighting it out.

Quote: Around what issues? There are wars and rumors of wars, true enough. When has there not been? However, domestically we seem stuck in a mode where most to all of the violence is blamed on lone nuts. I’ve been watching for groups to organize violent actions such that they are ready to strike again, and which attract popular support. With infiltration doctrine and a well organized police, popular repeated up scale violence won’t be easy. I’m watching for it to become real. Thus far the major factions don’t seem to be making it real.

I don't think you've been watching. Antifa had another riot yesterday (27 August 2017) in California.

http://dailycaller.com/2017/08/27/berkel...ark-video/

Quote:One problem may be division of wealth. No doubt is exists. The question is… so what?

Indeed so what. There have always been the rich and the poor since the begining of history. There will be a rich and a poor until a post-scarcity society can be created. I have no hopes that that will happen in my lifetime.

Quote:A more pertinent question is how many are being pushed below the poverty level. How many will convince themselves that something must change. Domestically, economically, this rather obvious reason for civil war or revolution has not gone critical. It seems one of the things that ought to be watched, though. However, with the see saw running as it has, why go violent if one just has to wait a few years for a very likely paradigm swap?

There are two problems with this theory.

1. Humans can endure extended periods of extreme poverty.
2. Revolutions never happen when expectations are on the down swing but rather on the upswing.

But there will be a civil war between the right and the left. And the right will win because we control the productive portions of the country. Where the corn is grown, where the ore and coal is mined. What do the cities have? Welfare recipients and the financial bourgeoisie. Add to that most cities are three days away from anarchy and the blue areas don't look too hot right now.

Quote:It is one thing to make predictions according to one’s extreme partisan values. We all can. Pretty much all of us here do. It is another to watch the trends, to accurately judge where we are, and what happens soon.

I agree. Which is why I'm pointing out that your expectations don't match the reality and you are attempting to doublethink your way out of it rather than consider that your ideology may be completely wrong. Maybe you can't do that and I'm wasting my time. There are plenty here who only have sporadic contact with reality. But from your posts it seems to me that you do have contact with reality at least as much as I do, your problem is a matter of what you've termed values-lock.

Quote:It may well be that we’ll have the technology for a soft landing into a post scarcity world. I’m just saying I’m seeing more fracking than thorium reactors in the real world. I’m sympathetic that we might in time go nuclear. The question is whether the elites currently profiting off fossil fuel will be greedy enough to prevent any soft landing. Will the current fear of nuclear be overcome? How strong will the need get before the want to arrives?

Fracking is at best a bridge, and it has a major flaw, fracking wells are quickly depleted. At most I would say that current fossil fuels will give us 10-20 years for nuclear reactors to be set up. And while I prefer to use thorium, uranium would work just as well. What is standing in the way at present is an elderly generation who is convinced that nuclear power is unsafe despite its record of safety.

After all there is a reason people can remember Three Mile Island, Chernobyl and Fukushima but don't remember the millions who've choked to death on smog created from burning coal.

Quote:One scenario involves global warming confirmed while the push for green technology isn’t being deployed. At minimum, there will be people angry with associated political turmoil. This has me watching rates of deployment, climate changes, spirals of violence, etc… So far, no. Everybody is too upset with tweets which hurt their feelings. Pardon if I roll my eyes and think the tweets are neither the problem or the answer.

Most so-called "green" technology isn't all that green. PV arrays produce mountains of waste after their lifespan of just a few decades, and that is before we deal with wind turbines which kill thousands of migratory species.

http://theconversation.com/the-green-tec...lity-46681

I don't much about tweets or tweeting. Like facebook I never got involved on Twitter. That being said, I roll my eyes at the speshul snowflakes too. Myself, I think over a decade of Millenials running around showing their ass has resulted in Generation Zed rejecting their ideology and turning off the social media.

Quote:There is a retail space crash coming, akin to the housing crash of a while ago.

There could. But I wouldn't liken it to the housing market crash unless the banks are giving businesses NIJA Loans. NIJA standing for No Income, Job or Assets.

Rather, I would liken it more closely to the constriction of whip manufacturing when the mass produced automobile was introduced a century ago.

Quote: We’ll see how bad it is, and whether enough people go out of work to impact the restaurant industry.

In an economic down turn there is always fewer restaurants visited, and fewer started. However, in your previous post you indicated that the food service industry would be completely plowed under. This is unlikely since eating out is an exerience rather than a commodity. Would a major recession negatively impact such things like fast food, most certainly. And honestly I consider that a good thing, people shouldn't be eating that shit anyway.

Quote: Will delivery services and internet massaging create enough jobs to mitigate those jobs lost? As far as I know, I’m the only one who has tried to make the link into restaurants. I am just cruising too many strip malls, and noting how the restaurants depend in great part on retail. The urges will be much the same, but economics changes as much as climate does. We’ll see. The point is you watch things rather than try for absolute predictions.

Over all, we should see a reduction in the total number of jobs. Ultimately the goal is to replace expensive trucks and expensive delivery drivers with far cheaper flying drones, or at least that is the direction in which Bezos wants to head, and Amazon is by far the largest general merchandise retailer.

http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-am...story.html

Quote:Anyway, can you appreciate the distinction I’m trying to make? Would you care to say what you are watching and why?

I have many times. But if it helps I strongly suggest checking out Infowars pretty frequently. Alex Jones isn't crazy, he's just six months ahead of everyone else.