Fighting The Fourth Reich

[Kinser79]

(08-28-2017, 09:54 PM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote: Hmm… The solar cycles… you ought not to bet your planet on that. They have about a dozen year cycle, which means a lot of the heat records are broken when the cycles hit their warmest. Thus, you get alarmists and denialists taking turns blowing trumpets. At the low, everything returns to the same baseline. You do get some variation, but if you look at the overall curves there is a much longer term and larger magnitude trend. CO2 and temperature have been going up since serious fossil fuel use took off after the US Civil War. The last solar cycle peak was indeed lower than most, but the high temperature records came anyway.

I wouldn't bet the economy on dubious projections as to the climate either. The local meteorologist has difficulty predicting the weather three days out, let alone three decades out. After all it wasn't that long ago that there were claims we were headed into a new ice age, or do you not remember the 1970s? I mean I was a little young to remember them, but for that I have duckduckgo. Google has had a fatwa issued against it so I changed engines.

Quote:The Northwest Passage isn’t a daydream. I remember bumping into a article about a commercial cargo ship that made it though without an icebreaker escort. I’m a bit dubious. Her navigator flew drones to help pick a course and the ship had a reinforced ice breaking bow herself. I went to find that article again, but got swamped in Google by too many pieces pushing northwest passage tourist trips to the far north. I also hear how Alaska, one of the more active states in preventing over fishing, has put a ban on fishing new areas opened up by retreating ice.

It seems to me that what you have there is skillful navigation of dangerous icy waters with a icebreaker escort and a reinforced bow. That being said Nuclear subs have been using the Northwest Passage for decades. I was fortunate enough for us to surface up there..lets just say that as late as 04 the Arctic was plenty cold.

Quote:You can find individual articles saying odd things. If your perspective is partisan enough, you can convince yourself that the outlier article is representative. For that reason I generally don’t put too much weight on individual articles. Too many sponsors in the commercial press. Too many agendas. Does it make RealClimate and other places where the pros get together?

Australian Broadcasting Corporation is a mainstream legacy media news source. I would imagine that they got their information from these "climate scientists". That being said, there is a reason I cited the article about the abundance of sea ice in the Antarctic. I don't know about you but if there is ice in the ocean it is a safe bet that the temperature from where it came from is at or below (and more likely below since this is Sea Ice and salt lowers the freezing point, which is why one salts icy patches on pavement) 273 Kelvin.

Quote:I think you want to review extinctions. Species don’t vanish slowly and steadily. Large clumps of them go together at the end of an epoch. Sometimes the reason is absurdly obvious. When a large enough asteroid hits the planet, you get an end of epoch with mass extinctions. Currently, the Earth is trying to respond to human dominance and often fails if extinction is counted as a failure. We’ve had a jump in extinctions already, and not all of them are directly climate related.

Scientific American covers one area in Amphibians in U.S. Declining at "Alarming and Rapid Rate"

Mass extinctions usually happen at the end of epochs but new species develop and old ones go extinct all the time. Indeed in Japan they have discovered a bacteria which consumes nylon as a food source. Nylon has only been around since the 1930s (and probably later for Japan).

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nylon-eating_bacteria

Quote:Too much isn’t about science, but competing political memes. Reagan suggested government is the problem, that one should cut back on domestic spending. In FDR’s time, it was assumed big government solved big problems with big projects. Thus, partisans to varying degrees who have bought into these memes will pick and choose what they want to believe to confirm them. It is still possible to find enough denialist leaning articles to maintain the conservative belief. I suspect that won’t be the case indefinitely.

I think you underestimate the internet. It never forgets. If an article is published everyone in the world has access to it permanently. Attempts at censorship by certain corporations aside.

Quote:You predict a rural victory in a pending civil war.

Not quite. I predict that if the Cities get too upity they get cut off. Tell me what is the corn acarage in Manhattan or the amount of rice grown in San Francisco.

Quote: I referenced history in the Whig talk that has the urban - progressive - new technology faction generally coming out on top. Part of this is the adaptation of new ideas. The cities are generally the place where the new ideas impact most. The rural faction often attempts to hold onto yesterday. Generally, it doesn’t happen. There is a long slow struggle, yes, but in many suspect a full scale S&H crisis is about adapting the culture to new ideas and technology. Often, a conservative's cold dead body is involved. We're just learning different things from history, I guess.

I see you're holding onto the idea that in order to be counter-culture one has to be something other than conservative. Which is amusing since the entire establishment is now distinctly liberal. But then again I already knew you were values locked into your "Whig" perspective.

Quote:I can sympathize with fracking being at best a bridge, but still wonder how much it would take, how close to disaster we get, waiting for a wide spread acceptance of nuclear. That’s one I want to watch. So far, fracking is being pushed, while reactor building is still mostly on hold. Should it be that way? Another question entirely.

Nuclear isn't being pushed right now because a huge, unnecessary, and wasteful government bureaucracy is standing in the way. It was created under the old paradigm (IE the New Dealer "Government solves problems" model). I'm speaking of course about the EPA and the Department of Energy. One the creation of a GI Republican and the other of a GI/Silent Cusp Democrat.

Both need to be gutted to permit nuclear power to be less expensive than the artificially inflated price it has now. Indeed, both have actively and effectively blocked the US from pursuing the French path to nuclear, which is distinctly rooted in the Mid-20th century. Nevermind newer technologies. Instead, the powers that be wish to sell us on a green renewable pipe dream even though Germany has conducted that experiment already and has only resulted in essentially being forced to import electricity and higher energy bills.

http://americanenergyalliance.org/2015/0...y-failure/

Quote:Internet censorship? I know governments are playing that game. China has it’s great firewall. The US is pursuing jihadists on line. I don’t see the main stream media playing that game. There is no lack of partisans yelling at each other.

You've never heard the term "fake news"? You've not heard of Google manipulating its algorithms to direct searches into partisan directions? You've not heard of YouTube taking down videos for saying such things as "Transgenderism is a mental illness" (It is, psychologists call it Gender Dysphoria Disorder), that races do exist and have evolved differently, and other politically incorrect things. Indeed there has been a running joke in some circles that in 2014 "edgy content" on YouTube was from the likes of Pewdeepie and TheAmazingAtheist (who is known for his long winded controversial rants and sticking bananas up his ass, and other assorted drama) but in 2017 "edgy content" is cat videos. And that is even before I get into censoring attempts by Twatter and Fuckbook.

It makes me wonder if the reason you're not seeing this happen in real time is because you are not adequately connected to what is happening or are willfully blind and deaf. Chances are the former based on your age. As I've pointed out before my mother is at most only a few months younger than you, and she's convinced that me, my boyfriend and our son are all insane with our complaints of online censorship. Of course she also is convinced that the only thing online is fitbit and mahjong connect and I have to update her fitbit for her half the time.

Inb4 Bob has no idea what fitbit is.