Bernie 4 Prez redux

[Eric the Green]

(11-14-2016, 12:21 PM)X_4AD_84 Wrote:

(11-11-2016, 04:20 AM)Eric the Green Wrote: That's good. He has a good physical background as an athlete in youth; he is quite robust and may crack the high hard ceiling of agism. With his 14-5 horoscope score, he might be a good challenger to Trump's 8-4 score. It would be a very close election since the new moon before election favors the incumbent, and Republicans win the electoral vote if they win the popular vote. I know my prediction might fail, and I would be biased in favor of Bernie, so Galen calls it crap. But in fact, no prediction about human events can always work. Human behavior is not mechanistic, as Galen and other silly materialists like him think. So astrology can't be always right, and it hasn't been studied by smart people until recently, so it's really a new field, despite its ancient traditions.

The patterns I mention are not just arbitary rules; they were based on patterns with a long consistent history. But they are nowhere near as regular as physical patterns, like predicting the astronomical events which astrology is based on. As Obama said, his prediction was right that the Sun would rise on Nov.9. But predicting human behavior is another thing entirely. And good astrologers have a better record than pundits do. You know all the things I have predicted over the years; the bigger things I got right. I always had some trouble with elections though, until recently.

But, old as he is, Bernie does well on my horoscope point system. Trump is mediocre, compared to modern presidents, but his score was higher than almost all of his creepy Republican opponents and the Democratic nominee too. I don't think I would be able now to honestly predict based solely on astrology who would win in 2020, if Bernie and Donald are the candidates. The signs would conflict, as they did in 2016. I would have to discover other patterns, or test out others that were suggested to me by other astrologers who predicted Trump would win.

I predict the 2018 midterm will be similar to 2006. There are many non-partisan people who either sat out the 2016 election or stupidly got sucked into voting for Trump. I doubt they will be loyal. Fatigue will set in early and some of the backlash will never stop.

It's possible, I hope; at least in the House in 2018, though not the Senate, which can't be switched until 2020. I'm not predicting it, or not predicting it.

In recent years, because of the dominance of the Reagan memes ("less government, lower taxes"), it has only been Democratic presidents who have lost the congress in their second year; Republican presidents lose it in the 6th year, as is normal.

Quote:That will set the stage for a strong challenge from the main stream left in 2018. That in turn will set the stage for a true challenge to Trump from the Left in 2020. I also predict that the GOP will still fragment. There is a well schooled minority within the GOP who have never accepted, and will never accept Trump. Now that Bannon is named Chief Strategist, that will only grow in consequence. The Alt-Right is not all of the Right. So, in addition to a strong 2020 challenge from the Left, there will also be a challenge from within the GOP. Or some other new party of the Right.

The minority in the GOP who never accepted Trump is very tiny indeed. Trump got virtually all the GOP vote.
In 2020 I'm sure if Trump is unpopular enough to lose the general election, that he will have a primary challenge beforehand. Not that it would consist of anyone who would attract anyone on the Left. Someone like McMullin. It would likely fail and most GOPPERS would come back to Trump, because they are GOPPERS and that's what they do. But maybe a few more will not. Primary challenges, if strong enough, can sometimes be one of Lichtman's keys that cost an incumbent party the White House.

One time this happened, the roles were reversed. The Alt-Right's Pat Buchanan challenged Classic Right's Bush I in 1992, and Classic Right Bush I lost the general election. It was probably one of Lichtman's keys. But Sanders' challenge to Hillary Clinton was not considered a key.