Anyone willing to bet on a devaluation of the dollar when all the debt bubbles burst?

[Eric the Green]

(05-20-2016, 10:49 PM)Galen Wrote:

(05-20-2016, 09:50 PM)Kinser79 Wrote:

(05-20-2016, 06:54 PM)TnT Wrote: So my fellow Economic Wizards ... what is it?  Catastrophic inflation or catastrophic deflation?

A little of both.  Currently there is a deflationary trend, but all the imaginary cash created through QEinfinity will eventually have to wash through the economy causing a rise in prices and a devaluation of the dollar.  This will probably result in further down grades to US Bond status, once it reaches the general economy.  Rising prices of course would largely be the result of inflation as I don't foresee a major shut down of normal production and distribution just yet.

There is one simple question:  Will the Fed governors ever accept that Keynesian economics does not work?  If they accept this possibility then a deflationary period is likely followed by a long period of growth.  If not then the US gets to look like Venezuela or Zimbabwe.  So far the Fed has shown a pronounced tendency to print at every crisis but I have hedged against both possibilities in case they decide to behave in a sane manner for once.

One thing that you can count on is the economic predictions made by the Fed are the exact opposite of what will happen.  They have a lousy prediction record.  Even worse than Eric the Obtuse, which is quite a feat given how clueless he is.

My prediction record is unmatched by anyone, which anyone except Galen and Kinser can verify from my posts to these forums over the years. One thing is clear: the libertarian trickle-down economics that Galen the Clueless espouses, does not work and has never worked. On the other hand, the "welfare state" worked well from the 30s to the 70s, until Galen's and Kinser's hero got in and wrecked it and created the trickle-down economy we still live in today, and which has created a huge class division between rich and poor in this country.

So when will this current hour-glass Reaganomics economy cause the collapse of the dollar?

Actually that's a good question and I'll need to give it some thought. I am sure such a thing won't happen unless Trump upsets the applecart and somehow wins the election despite my prediction otherwise. If that happens, I'd say a collapse could come soon afterward. His childish economic and foreign policies could cause a panic rather quickly. But if my prediction holds and Hillary eeks out a win, then I expect no collapse during this decade, although a recession seems likely as the decade ends.

What may cause a collapse is if the country splits in the mid-2020s. This is still a possibility. It would be catastrophic, but the goal would be to free the blue half from the red half so that progress could resume. And then it might. I actually think the green energy boom will help to power a relatively booming economy in the 2020s. That seems the most-likely scenario. Trickle-down economics will be repealed too, and more equality (rather than the rich squelching everything as Galen and Kinser want), will generate an economic revival. For it is the middle class and poor spending money, as Keynes said, that boosts the economy; not Galen's wealthy few who spend their tax breaks and subsidies on luxury items that don't create many jobs, as well as on buyouts, firings, unions busts, lower wages, new plants overseas, automation, and other such goodies they buy with their trickle-down economics boons. 

The job creaters are job destroyers. Galen the Clueless's economic program has been tried for 40 years now and has failed miserably. The prospect that the Millies understand this, and will vote to correct it, assures a good chance of economic recovery as the 4T climaxes and the 1T begins, and we return to being a more equal and widely-prosperous society like the previous late 4T and 1T were in the previous cycle, instead of a libertine libertarian society dedicated to the fortunes of corrupt rich folks like Galen. Hey, maybe the turning cycle actually works??? Get a Clue, Clueless!!!

After that, I see the Awakening coming, and an unstable economy usually accompanies it. Global integration of the economy, combined with increased attention to local and national conditions, will work to avoid a devaluation if these liberal policies are implemented, instead of those of Galen the Clueless and Kinser the Korrupt. So, I don't forsee a devaluation happening, as far as I can tell now.