[img width=400 height=390]https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/s_8ks7bqO_6ybvMSdLdPprqkFpo=/0x0:1250x1318/1520x0/filters:focal(0x0:1250x1318):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/22316368/Poll_02_21_21_1.jpg[/img]
https://www.deseret.com/utah/2021/2/21/2...ling-trump
[/quote]
1. It is Utah, one of the usual strongest states for Republican pols. Trump had some trouble here, but he is off the scene. This is extremely good performance for a Democrat. Did Obama ever get to this level of support in Utah? OK, Obama is a poor comparison for Utah because he ended up losing 72-24 or Romney in 2012. I'd love to see a preference poll pitting Obama against Trump in Utah.
2. A 6% gap in Utah is far less than one could reasonably expect. If this were where Biden were early in the 2024 electoral season and he had to win Utah, he could have a chance. The line of approval for having a 50% chance of winning re-election for an incumbent in a state-wide race is roughly 43.5% at the start of an electoral season.
3. This is a Rasmussen poll, and Scott Rasmussen usually polls favorably to Republicans.
4. It is arguable that President Biden is getting credit for
(1) the response to COVID-19, and
(2) showing no mercy to the insurrectionists.
Mormons have no tolerance for political violence or street crime. If you can't behave yourself, then stay out of Utah.
[quote author=Tender Branson link=topic=411540.msg7966670#msg7966670 date=1614104612 uid=1660]
VA (CNU)
57% approve
36% disapprove
https://cnu.edu/wasoncenter/surveys/arch...02-23.html
[/quote]
Stronger than the electoral result. Twelve states now.
![[Image: genusmap.php?year=2016&ev_c=1&pv_p=1&ev_...&NE3=0;1;5]](https://uselectionatlas.org/TOOLS/genusmap.php?year=2016&ev_c=1&pv_p=1&ev_p=1&type=calc&AL=0;9;5&AK=0;3;5&AZ=0;11;5&AR=0;6;5&CA=1;55;9&CO=0;9;5&CT=0;7;5&DE=0;3;5&DC=0;3;5&FL=0;29;5&GA=1;16;8&HI=0;4;5&ID=0;4;5&IL=0;20;5&IN=0;11;5&IA=0;6;5&KS=0;6;5&KY=2;8;5&LA=0;8;5&MD=0;10;5&MA=0;11;5&MI=1;16;4&MN=0;10;5&MS=2;6;7&MO=0;10;5&MT=0;3;5&NV=0;6;5&NH=1;4;4&NJ=0;14;5&NM=0;5;5&NY=1;29*;9&NC=1;15;6&ND=0;3;5&OH=0;18;5&OK=0;7;5&OR=0;7;5&PA=0;20;5&RI=0;4;5&SC=0;9;5&SD=2;3;5&TN=0;11;5&TX=0;38;5&UT=2;6;4&VT=0;3;5&VA=1;13;7&WA=1;12;8&WV=0;5;5&WI=0;10;5&WY=0;3;5&ME=0;2;5&ME1=0;1;5&ME2=0;1;5&NE=0;2;5&NE1=0;1;5&NE2=0;1;5&NE3=0;1;5)
Key:
30% red shade: Biden up 1-5%
40% red shade: Biden up 5-10%
50% red shade: Biden up 10-15%
60% red shade: Biden up 15-20%
70% red shade: Biden up 20-25%
80% red shade: Biden up 25-30%
90% red shade: Biden up 30%+
50% green shade: tie
30% blue shade: Biden down 1-5%
40% blue shade: Biden down 5-10%
50% blue shade: Biden down 10-15%
60% blue shade: Biden down 15-20%
70% blue shade: Biden down 20-25%
80% blue shade: Biden down 25-30%
90% blue shade: Biden down 30%+
It is approval ratings, and not favorability ratings. Favorability ratings are relevant when they are blatant (as in states that are not close and usually do not get polled, like New York or Oklahoma) because the states rarely decide an election, but they always must defer to approval. Would I use a favorability rating for Illinois? Sure. Wisconsin? Absolutely not.
*an asterisk indicates that I have accepted a favorability rating. New York State only.
https://www.deseret.com/utah/2021/2/21/2...ling-trump
[/quote]
1. It is Utah, one of the usual strongest states for Republican pols. Trump had some trouble here, but he is off the scene. This is extremely good performance for a Democrat. Did Obama ever get to this level of support in Utah? OK, Obama is a poor comparison for Utah because he ended up losing 72-24 or Romney in 2012. I'd love to see a preference poll pitting Obama against Trump in Utah.
2. A 6% gap in Utah is far less than one could reasonably expect. If this were where Biden were early in the 2024 electoral season and he had to win Utah, he could have a chance. The line of approval for having a 50% chance of winning re-election for an incumbent in a state-wide race is roughly 43.5% at the start of an electoral season.
3. This is a Rasmussen poll, and Scott Rasmussen usually polls favorably to Republicans.
4. It is arguable that President Biden is getting credit for
(1) the response to COVID-19, and
(2) showing no mercy to the insurrectionists.
Mormons have no tolerance for political violence or street crime. If you can't behave yourself, then stay out of Utah.
[quote author=Tender Branson link=topic=411540.msg7966670#msg7966670 date=1614104612 uid=1660]
VA (CNU)
57% approve
36% disapprove
https://cnu.edu/wasoncenter/surveys/arch...02-23.html
[/quote]
Stronger than the electoral result. Twelve states now.
Key:
30% red shade: Biden up 1-5%
40% red shade: Biden up 5-10%
50% red shade: Biden up 10-15%
60% red shade: Biden up 15-20%
70% red shade: Biden up 20-25%
80% red shade: Biden up 25-30%
90% red shade: Biden up 30%+
50% green shade: tie
30% blue shade: Biden down 1-5%
40% blue shade: Biden down 5-10%
50% blue shade: Biden down 10-15%
60% blue shade: Biden down 15-20%
70% blue shade: Biden down 20-25%
80% blue shade: Biden down 25-30%
90% blue shade: Biden down 30%+
It is approval ratings, and not favorability ratings. Favorability ratings are relevant when they are blatant (as in states that are not close and usually do not get polled, like New York or Oklahoma) because the states rarely decide an election, but they always must defer to approval. Would I use a favorability rating for Illinois? Sure. Wisconsin? Absolutely not.
*an asterisk indicates that I have accepted a favorability rating. New York State only.
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated Communist but instead the people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists -- Hannah Arendt.