Joe Biden Approve/Disapprove Data for Progress Polls
Arizona: 53/45
Colorado: 61/37
Georgia: 54/42
Michigan: 52/45
Montana: 42/58
New Hampshire: 54/45
North Carolina: 57/40
Pennsylvania: 54/43
West Virginia: 37/62
Wisconsin: 56/43
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Twenty-five states now, and the most interesting addition is Pennsylvania. If I saw a map like thiws going into November 2024 I would expect President Biden to win 358 or 375 electoral votes (depending on Ohio)... 415 if Texas goes D. Trump may have been an excellent match for Iowa and Ohio in 2016 and 2020.
Of course we have the possibility of electoral shenanigans in 2024 that could render strong approval numbers for the President moot in those states.
![[Image: genusmap.php?year=2016&ev_c=1&pv_p=1&ev_...&NE3=0;1;5]](https://uselectionatlas.org/TOOLS/genusmap.php?year=2016&ev_c=1&pv_p=1&ev_p=1&type=calc&AL=0;9;5&AK=0;3;5&AZ=1;11;4&AR=0;6;5&CA=1;54;9&CO=1;10;7&CT=0;7;5&DE=0;3;5&DC=0;3;5&FL=1;30;3&GA=1;16;5&HI=0;4;5&ID=0;4;5&IL=0;19;5&IN=0;11;5&IA=1;6;3&KS=0;6;5&KY=2;8;5&LA=0;8;5&MD=0;10;5&MA=1;11;8&MI=1;15;4&MN=0;10;5&MS=2;6;7&MO=2;10;5&MT=2;4;6&NV=1;6;4&NH=1;4;4&NJ=1;14;6&NM=0;5;5&NY=1;28;7&NC=1;16;6&ND=0;3;5&OH=0;17;5&OK=0;7;5&OR=1;8;5&PA=1;19;5&RI=0;4;5&SC=0;9;5&SD=2;3;5&TN=0;11;5&TX=2;40;3&UT=2;6;4&VT=0;3;5&VA=1;13;6&WA=1;12;8&WV=2;4;8&WI=1;10;5&WY=0;3;5&ME=0;2;5&ME1=0;1;5&ME2=0;1;5&NE=0;2;5&NE1=0;1;5&NE2=0;1;5&NE3=0;1;5)
Key:
30% red shade: Biden up 1-5%
40% red shade: Biden up 5-10%
50% red shade: Biden up 10-15%
60% red shade: Biden up 15-20%
70% red shade: Biden up 20-25%
80% red shade: Biden up 25-30%
90% red shade: Biden up 30%+
50% green shade: tie
30% blue shade: Biden down 1-5%
40% blue shade: Biden down 5-10%
50% blue shade: Biden down 10-15%
60% blue shade: Biden down 15-20%
70% blue shade: Biden down 20-25%
80% blue shade: Biden down 25-30%
90% blue shade: Biden down 30%+
It is approval ratings, and not favorability ratings. Favorability ratings are relevant when they are blatant (as in states that are not close and usually do not get polled, like New York Rhode Island or Oklahoma) because the states rarely decide an election, but they always must defer to approval. Would I use a favorability rating for Illinois? Sure. Wisconsin? Absolutely not.
A poll for Pennsylvania showed a significant edge (high single digits) for Biden in favorability.
Arizona: 53/45
Colorado: 61/37
Georgia: 54/42
Michigan: 52/45
Montana: 42/58
New Hampshire: 54/45
North Carolina: 57/40
Pennsylvania: 54/43
West Virginia: 37/62
Wisconsin: 56/43
[/font][/size][/color][/font][/size][/color][/font][/size][/color]
[/quote]
Twenty-five states now, and the most interesting addition is Pennsylvania. If I saw a map like thiws going into November 2024 I would expect President Biden to win 358 or 375 electoral votes (depending on Ohio)... 415 if Texas goes D. Trump may have been an excellent match for Iowa and Ohio in 2016 and 2020.
Of course we have the possibility of electoral shenanigans in 2024 that could render strong approval numbers for the President moot in those states.
Key:
30% red shade: Biden up 1-5%
40% red shade: Biden up 5-10%
50% red shade: Biden up 10-15%
60% red shade: Biden up 15-20%
70% red shade: Biden up 20-25%
80% red shade: Biden up 25-30%
90% red shade: Biden up 30%+
50% green shade: tie
30% blue shade: Biden down 1-5%
40% blue shade: Biden down 5-10%
50% blue shade: Biden down 10-15%
60% blue shade: Biden down 15-20%
70% blue shade: Biden down 20-25%
80% blue shade: Biden down 25-30%
90% blue shade: Biden down 30%+
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated Communist but instead the people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists -- Hannah Arendt.