The Partisan Divide on Issues

[Classic-Xer]

(07-23-2020, 06:56 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: I would not totally discount the hidden vote in America for the right-wing side of the culture war. Voters did come out of the woodwork to vote for Trump in 2016 and thereby shift the national popular vote about 2 points from where the pre-election polls indicated, from 4% + Democratic to 2% + Democratic. This happened especially in Florida and the Rust Belt northern tier of swing states.

But it will only take a shift of 1 or 2 % this time to shift 4 of these states Democratic again. Florida now favors Biden by 7 points, Wisconsin by 6, Michigan by almost 8, and Pennsylvania by 6 and a half. Even in Ohio Biden now leads by 2 points. Biden is a stronger candidate than Hillary was, in spite of his age.

Last time, Trump's appeal to voters in these 5 states was not mainly cultural. He ran well-produced ads in the Rust Belt swing states that appealed to the working class that was suffering in those states. His promise to end free trade was very appealing to workers in the declining industrial small towns and small cities in those states. He also sold them on the idea, the way Reagan did, that his trickle-down policies would stoke the economy. To some extent, his tax cuts kept the economic recovery begun by Obama going. But in truth, the economy in Trump's term was not better than during Obama's second term. Trickle-down economics, tariffs, and stopping immigration are what Trump promised. It's reasonable to suppose that Trump did not quite deliver on these. Free trade is about the same as what it was before, and immigration was never a real economic problem in these states to begin with. Trickle-down doesn't trickle.

So Trump's attempt now to appeal to those who reject removal of confederate statues and renaming bases and his anti-immigration policy may not be enough to offset the now-failing economy due to his failure to lead on covid. He may be delivering on culture-war symbols, and gaining some support by stoking fears of non-existent riots and temporary crime waves and blaming them on left-wing radicals and anti-police protesters. But denial of the right to protest may not be what the swing voters want, and the killing of unarmed black people by police has increased concern among whites for better race relations and police reform, and Trump trails Biden 2-1 on that issue. The fear he preys upon may not be greater than the real fear due to an out-of-control pandemic about which Trump appears helpless and in denial.

Well, illegal immigration is an economic problem. Why is an illegal immigrant doing the work of a poor American reliant upon welfare or a lazy couch potato should be doing? Granted, we probably aren't paying for the lazy liberal couch potato yet. The Obama recovery was a slow recovery that didn't recover very much over 8 years. So, how far was Clinton up in the polls the day before the election? As far as Biden, I've seen enough of Biden to know that he's not up for the task that lays ahead? My buddy who has been a loyal Democrat since he's been old enough to vote is voting for Trump. As far as the polls, I think you're seeing all the liberal hype and lack of seeing Biden in action is being reflected in the polls right now.