The Partisan Divide on Issues

[Mikebert]

(09-07-2020, 11:16 PM)Classic-Xer Wrote: Dude, I've never had an interest in your personal property, your personal income/ wealth or your family related issues that may grow beyond family related  and become much more troublesome with time either.

That is what I thought. So why is your nose out of joint about the stuff going in Portland and other cities? Surely you personally feel no threat from these 'rioters", being well-armed. As for the larger situation, the old adage "this too shall pass" applies. We are clearly in what Samuel Huntington called a "creedal passion period", predicted for 2020 (see link). Turchin just focused on the social unrest aspect of these periods, but they although involve cultural instability, which Huntington touched upon with the "creedal" descriptor for these periods. As a fan of S&H you are familiar with the phenomena of perodic "social moments"that involve both political (crises) and cultural (awakenings) instability.

All of these are aspects of a cycle, which Turchin suggests can be modeled as a kind of epidemic of radicalism. I implemented his model some years ago and fit it to past outbursts of radicalism, most recently in the period around 1970. Just like back then this outburst will largely go away.  I expect it to largely burn itself out, perhaps as early as next year. Since it is far less violent than the last cycle (the c1970 episode), which was less violent than the one before it (c 1920) and the one before that (Civil War), it's really nothing to get all worked up about.

https://bigthink.com/politics-current-af...redictions