10-26-2021, 02:17 PM
(10-26-2021, 12:46 PM)David Horn Wrote:(10-25-2021, 11:49 PM)Classic-Xer Wrote:(10-25-2021, 04:58 PM)nguyenivy Wrote: You may want to check that maths again: assuming everyone in the US will face the virus someday, a 1 to 2 % death rate implies 3.3 million to 6.6 million deaths. Globally it works out to 80mn & 160mn. These would be in addition to all other causes of death that still happen. Looking at the numbers, I would say the restrictions were necessary, especially prior to the vaccines. I still wonder how much the vaccines cut the death rates by if everyone on Earth got them. Maybe it's enough to not need restrictions provided everyone got their vaccines.
The numbers are based on known/reported cases only and don't take into account the number of us who have had it who didn't know it at the time and didn't report it or get tested to determine whether they were positive. We went for months without accurate testing and public testing sites and the vaccines were made available to the public.
Me, I had it before we knew anything about it along with several other people that I know (family members and friends and casual acquaintances) personally. With that said, the number of people who have already had it is more likely much higher than the numbers that you and the others are going by here and the actual death rate is more than likely less than a percent of those who have had COVID so far.
You may be right that, intentionally or not, we vastly undercounted the number of COVID illnesses -- especially in the early months. Less inaccurate are the number of COVID deaths, which is at least the official number of 737,526. That's 1 of every 450 Americans, and much worse elsewhere in the world. Most of us are not so isolated that we don't know at least one victim personally. We might be able to say the same about traffic fatalities too, except COVID has done is dirty work in months, not decades.
With what happened in New York early in the pandemic, with many dying covid patients never making it to the hospital or any place to be tested, and the fact that many red states are in effect third world countries, I would not doubt that the covid death is also an undercount in the USA, and certainly it is in places like India and Brazil.