The Partisan Divide on Issues

[pbrower2a]

(09-20-2022, 07:11 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: The 4T crisis will not end until this decade is over. The planetary cycles as well as Howe's analysis indicates this, but most of all the climate crisis. We can't assume we are in a 1T while our lands are being flooded and burned and too little is being done. Changes are not made in 1Ts, and some big changes are need to deal with the climate crisis. Most of all this means replacing fossil fuels with renewables. That is the ONLY workable answer now. This can be done, but needs to be speeded up. No issue and no remedy is more significant than this, bar none. There is no chance the car culture will be replaced; it must be electrified. Nuclear and natural gas can help with the transition too, but must be faded out (especially gas). No-one should hope for consumers to change behavior, or impose upon them as the remedy. They don't have any alternative besides what the big compaines provide and impose on them. Reject neoliberalism; control and regulate the companies!

4T's can end abruptly, and often do. 1945 began with the Battle of the Bulge not yet fully decided and with the Japanese Empire still holding a huge amount of territory.  On April 30, 1945, Adolf Hitler blew his brains out; on May 1, 1945, Josef Goebbels offed himself, his wife, and their children; on May 8 and May 9 the top figures of the German Armed Forcers signed documents of surrender. In September the Japanese surrendered unconditionally. The Crisis was over, and it was over fast. There was no steady transition. The end was unambiguous. Likewise the American Civil War; the Confederacy still thought it had a chance during the Battle of Petersburg until it ran out of troops. General R0bert E. lee got out of a trap at Petersburg only to be caught in another one at Appomattox. Lincoln was assassinated, largely defining the post-war world in a surprising way. The last slaves were freed on June 19, 1865. 

This may be more a structural change in our political system, as there is no shooting war. It is premature to predict the result of the 2022 midterm election, but should it be a smashing defeat for the GOP then we are in for profound changes of political life, national culture, and much else. if the midterm has an ambiguous result, then we have until at least 2025 to see what is decided. If we have the election of a Trump clone in 2024, then we will be in for a nasty struggle that decides everything -- perhaps even with a military coup. The Joint Chiefs made their decision on January 6, 2021 on who would be President.  

If we get a Trump-like regime established once and for all after which nothing else is possible, then America ends up with a bleak 1T that portends a death spiral for America. In view of the desperation in which Humanity will be when AGW gets incredibly bad (starvation, riots, purges) in time for the next 4T (late 2070's or early 2080's) I can imagine the horrific regimes possible and their proclivity to solve international or even domestic disputes with nukes.   This 4T is mild for a paucity of shooting wars.          

Quote:It won't matter that past 4Ts were shorter. The length of the saeculum as a whole won't be denied, and generational dates can't be shortened as Pew has done on the sole basis of demographics. The 4T is not defined by Covid; that was a 2-year crisis, not a 20-year one. And considering the likely fact that the civil war crisis was at least 15 years long, not 5, past 4Ts have never been only 14 years long; they have been at least somewhat longer than that. The first one of the USA was, according to S&H, 21 years long. The previous one to our current one was 17, but it was preceeded by turnings that were a little bit longer than usual.

For America, COVID-19 is a war-like death toll. Yes, Crisis Eras can get protracted with malignant leadership, as I see in a very long crisis in Russia beginning with the First World War and ending in the Second or in China in a similar but even longer timeline that began with the 1911 revolution and ended with the takeover by Mao Zedong. 

Quote:The cold civil war is not over, nor its dire threat to democracy, and neither are gun massacres and militia threats. Neither are police killings. Ethnic divisions are still too strong, causing the divisions to continue. Immigration continues and will get worse, thanks to climate change and social upheaval elsewhere, and that issue is the one being used by the right-wing to foment the continued divisions and cold civil war. If Putin is not deposed he will strike again or keep the war going. China threatens Taiwan, and Biden pledges to help it. Much more repeal of neoliberalism is needed; Biden has only barely begun. If it continues to rule the USA, blocking needed tax increases and transformative programs, there will be NO 1T; only a continal crisis as the republic dies. If Biden does not run and win again, God only knows the scale of the mess we'll be in if a Republican succeeds in 2025, as would be very likely. It is horrific to even think about. And yet people are saying he should not run. That is the biggest red flag out there!

President Biden is pushing for 1T characteristics to supplant 3T characteristics. America had fully cast off 3T characteristics long before the Pearl Harbor Attack; it has cleaved to 3T tendencies at least until now. Neoliberalism needs political support even if it is strictly dark money that confuses people into tolerating it out of fear of change.  Donald Trump has clearly shown that democracy can die even in America if the worst trends overpower all else. Real progress toward a viable solution of a 4T comes as 1T tendencies supplant the 3T tendencies that made a 4T a certainty.  

Quote:All this could turn the cold civil war hot. No-one here should be looking forward for a 1T to begin soon. Batten down the hatches. The battle outside ragin' will soon shake your windows and rattle your walls. The waters around us have grown. The first ones now will later be last; the order is rapidly fading. The times they are a-changin'.

All possible, but not certain.

Quote:The financial difference between the current Crisis and the previous completed Crisis is that the economic meltdowns that started similarly ended at different times.

1929 peak 2007
1930 the real crash  2008
1931 breakdown of the financial system 2009 the forestalling of such
1932 the real depression 2010 no such thing.

I don't quite agree. 1929 is equal to 2008, not 2007. And in the same month too.
The depression was only replaced by continued middle class decline and a sluggish recovery. The inequality and middle class decline continues. Neoliberalism still rules the roost. It does not matter if conventional economic indicators have improved since 2010. The recession continued. Republican power recovered in Nov.2010 and imposed further economic declines on the people. The people are still getting worse off.[/quote]

My source: