(09-19-2016, 06:49 AM)Mikebert Wrote:ce my forecast is that the next recession won't be as bad, and there won't be any real new US war until 2025 or 2026, can my prediction prevail even if the economics and the logic say otherwise?Eric the Green Wrote:Yes, your logic adds up. So this is about can we survive even Clinton; even if Trump loses. We probably can't survive Trump, but can we survive Hillary Clinton if she wins narrowly?
We certainly can survive Clinton. But what happens to her party if she becomes the Democratic Hoover?
It certainly can. 2008 showed that financial panics had come back after being banished in the 1930’s. Back in the old days panic spacing had run from 14 years (1893-1907) to 24 years (1907-1932) with an average value of 18 years, about the length of two modern business cycles. If this timing is still valid then we should avoid panic in this recession, but get it in the next, which agrees with your timetable. It also agrees with Turchin’s secular cycle concept.
Quote:It does not with the S&H generational theory. According to S&H’s theory (which is based on Karl Mannheim’s ideas, generations pick up their traits when coming of age. They express them later in life when they reach the leadership phase of life. Thus, this 4T is generationally defined as the period when the generation shaped by the last 2T is in leadership. This generation was born over 1943-1960, according to S&H and they should be leaving the leadership role in the early 2020’s.
Boomers fell into several categories: the counterculture types who may have done more to establish the cultural norms of secular society, the religious fundamentalists who hold that no human suffering is in excess so long as it gets people 'right with God', the largely-Catholic "right-to-life" types, minority-rights advocates, and the corporatist types who believe that no mass suffering is in excess so long as it turns a profit. Of those the minority-rights advocates may be the most admirable.... but they are still the minority.
Meanwhile the old New Deal Coalition which (except for the Southern racists) could serve a workable and decent social order and economic reality, faded away.
Do the Idealists promote culture and education or do they simply exemplify arrogance, selfishness, and ruthlessness? The Russian Civil War between the Whites and the Bolsheviks shows how nasty Idealists can get.
We have yet to see which Boom agenda will prevail. Maybe we will not know what good can prevail until every
sordid alternative implodes.
Quote:The GIs left leadership in 1976, 8 years before the end of the 2T. If we extrapolate Howe’s data we get Boomers exiting leadership in 2024, suggesting a 4T end in 2032. If we don’t get a panic until ca. 2027 and replace the bum in office in 2028 (regeneracy), can we then go to climax and 4T resolution in just 4 years? This seems to be a lot of really heavy lifting. Much more likely would be nothing is done and we just continue to drift in which case it will look like we have just stayed in a 3T for 48 years, and the theory will be invalidated.
The last completed Crisis had a unified America capable of smoothing most divides while facing three Evil Empires, all of which absolutely had to be defeated, at once. The previous Crisis had America rifted into warring sides over economic models incompatible with the moral values of each other.
Quote: Thus, I believe if another panic is truly in the cards (as many here, including me, think) then it pretty much has to happen now or the S&H theory is invalid. The whole point of theory is to explain. That requires that its use can rule out some future paths, otherwise it is no theory. It’s fish or cut bait time. In Generations they said we should know in 30 years or so. Well, the time is coming for their theory to deliver.
Quote:First of all, I think the current recovery is turning out to be more robust than the last one.
No, it’s not more robust. It’s longer. The last business cycle ended in 7 years. If you compare where we we are the end of 2014 with 2007 you will see we lagged.
America got major reforms for several years after the economic meltdown bottomed out. This time the reactionary interests made sure that the only reform that would satisfy them after America got out of the worst of the meltdown would be an economic system that simply rewarded the elites with easy income on an even grander scale while exacting more toil for far lesser reward.... basically fascism without the Party militias, politicized youth groups, torture chambers, shooting pits, strutting tyrant, and militarist adventures. Something like Putin's Russia, except without state subsidies for medicine and education.
Do I trust our economic elites with my freedom? No more than I trust them with my economic welfare. They want all bounties that the economic order can offer to be easy privileges for themselves except for those that the common man can get, if at all, only for heroic sacrifices, at great cost, and at terms of the choosing of the elites.
If such is the sort of life that those elites have for me, then I hate life in a political order that took nearly a quarter of a millennium to fail.
Quote:Quote:There was no stimulus after previous recessions, going back decades.
No, there was a Bush stimulus. It was small but then the recession was small.
A year and a half beginning in the economic meltdowns that began in the autumns of 1929 and 2007, security prices seemed to be on the same downward course. Let's remember that America underwent what almost looks like a central bankers' coup in which the Secretary of the Federal Reserve, the Secretary of the Treasury, and the Chief of the Securities and Exchange Commission told the President and Congress exactly what would be done.
Quote:Quote:This was the first time that the Democrats were able to get a stimulus past the trickle-down ideology intact for decades.
Yes, but they won’t be able to the next time.
There might never be any pretense of any bounty of capitalism trickling down to the workers. Elites will take everything not necessary for the survival of the workers that they choose to survive, and yield to those the barest means of survival -- with perhaps some cheap entertainment as the contemporary 'opiate of the masses'.
So you get to see a televised baseball game or televised rock concert as a reward for over-fulfilling a quota.
FDR -- New Deal... Donald Trump, Raw Deal.
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated Communist but instead the people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists -- Hannah Arendt.