11-27-2017, 04:38 PM
(This post was last modified: 11-27-2017, 04:41 PM by Eric the Green.)
(11-27-2017, 11:30 AM)David Horn Wrote:(11-26-2017, 03:51 PM)Warren Dew Wrote: That, and the fact that on average the four labeled points skew Republican by 4 points. That would have the Republicans losing the popular House vote by about 4 points, which given the Democrats' concentration in highly blue districts, would still have Republicans barely hanging on to the House.
Then there's the issue of taxation without adequate representation. Do you honestly think that the mostly BLUE urbanites will countenance greatly diminished representation while paying the lion's share of the nation's taxes? Both disparities have been growing in the last few decades. I'll wager that we aren't too far from the tipping point, where that issue will move to the center of the political stage.
Even with Warren's estimate, that would be a 6 point lead, not 4 point. And there's no reason to think that Real Clear Politics, which skews conservative, would not reflect actual sentiment. But then, it's a long way to November 2018, and we're talking Americans here. Ughhh. So, no prediction can be certain.
The interesting thing about that issue of "concentration" was demonstrated by Virginia's results. If the blue districts really had that much concentration, the result would have been monstrously lopsided in favor of the Democratic candidate. What happened is that the rural red districts are so lopsided, that it takes huge numbers of votes from less-lopsided blue districts to offset it. The rural red districts are brim full of ill-informed, fear-based, prejudiced, fanatical voters who almost unanimously vote Republican. That fact is what rules our politics today. And they have more pull in the electoral college. Of course, in blue states, the blue districts are larger and sometimes more lopsided, and the state goes blue. But these true-blue states are not the majority of states today.