11-28-2017, 02:27 AM
(11-27-2017, 04:38 PM)Eric the Green Wrote:(11-27-2017, 11:30 AM)David Horn Wrote:(11-26-2017, 03:51 PM)Warren Dew Wrote: That, and the fact that on average the four labeled points skew Republican by 4 points. That would have the Republicans losing the popular House vote by about 4 points, which given the Democrats' concentration in highly blue districts, would still have Republicans barely hanging on to the House.
Then there's the issue of taxation without adequate representation. Do you honestly think that the mostly BLUE urbanites will countenance greatly diminished representation while paying the lion's share of the nation's taxes? Both disparities have been growing in the last few decades. I'll wager that we aren't too far from the tipping point, where that issue will move to the center of the political stage.
Even with Warren's estimate, that would be a 6 point lead, not 4 point.
The line is not at a 45 degree angle. A 10.5 point margin on the poll corresponds to an 8 point margin in the actual voting, based on the line. Add a 4 point Republican skew, and you get an end result of 4 points.