PA-18 is settled except for a possible recount, and it is ominous for Republicans nationwide. As I have seen on direct polling of the President in statewide polls, the biggest losses of support for Donald Trump are generally where he won by the largest margins Maybe some of these places are reverting to what they were in the (Bill) Clinton or even the Carter era. These are Senate polls, and they are relevant to the Presidency and to Congress.
Dem margins in Senate battlegrounds, per @ppppolls
#PAsen Casey (D, inc) 54% (+18) Barletta (R ) 36%
#WIsen Baldwin (D, inc) 51 (+12) Vukmir (R ) 39
#TNsen Bredesen (D) 46 (+5) Blackburn (R ) 41, open seat to replace Corker (R )
#NVsen Rosen (D) 44 (+5) Heller (R, inc) 39
#AZsen Sinema (D) 46 (+5) McSally (R ) 41%, open seat to replace Flake (R )
Republicans are not going to pick up Senate seats in at least two of the three states that President Trump won by the narrowest of margins with margins like those shown here. There just isn't enough time. I see nothing in this polling data on the other of the three closest "Trump states" of 2016 (Michigan), but I would expect Stabenow to do about as well as Baldwin or Casey.
The other three involve a Republican incumbent trying to hold onto a state that has been drifting D (Heller in Nevada) and two open seats. Arizona was close in 2016, suggesting that demographics could flip the state in statewide races including for the electoral votes in 2020 and any vote for the inevitable successor of Senator John McCain. In the other -- one need remember that moderate Democrats Al Gore and Jim Sasser did well in Tennessee when it had a reputation as a 'moderate' state.
These five polls do not say everything about the Senate, as Democrats are trying to hold onto Senate seats in states generally understood as Republican-leaning: Florida, Indiana, Missouri, Montana, North Dakota, and Ohio. But those five suggest a D wave, as all five have margins lying from just beyond the usual margin of error to seemingly decisive.
Republicans can hold the Senate
Dem margins in Senate battlegrounds, per @ppppolls
#PAsen Casey (D, inc) 54% (+18) Barletta (R ) 36%
#WIsen Baldwin (D, inc) 51 (+12) Vukmir (R ) 39
#TNsen Bredesen (D) 46 (+5) Blackburn (R ) 41, open seat to replace Corker (R )
#NVsen Rosen (D) 44 (+5) Heller (R, inc) 39
#AZsen Sinema (D) 46 (+5) McSally (R ) 41%, open seat to replace Flake (R )
Republicans are not going to pick up Senate seats in at least two of the three states that President Trump won by the narrowest of margins with margins like those shown here. There just isn't enough time. I see nothing in this polling data on the other of the three closest "Trump states" of 2016 (Michigan), but I would expect Stabenow to do about as well as Baldwin or Casey.
The other three involve a Republican incumbent trying to hold onto a state that has been drifting D (Heller in Nevada) and two open seats. Arizona was close in 2016, suggesting that demographics could flip the state in statewide races including for the electoral votes in 2020 and any vote for the inevitable successor of Senator John McCain. In the other -- one need remember that moderate Democrats Al Gore and Jim Sasser did well in Tennessee when it had a reputation as a 'moderate' state.
These five polls do not say everything about the Senate, as Democrats are trying to hold onto Senate seats in states generally understood as Republican-leaning: Florida, Indiana, Missouri, Montana, North Dakota, and Ohio. But those five suggest a D wave, as all five have margins lying from just beyond the usual margin of error to seemingly decisive.
Republicans can hold the Senate
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated Communist but instead the people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists -- Hannah Arendt.