Trump will lose.

[pbrower2a]

The Crisis will redefine what will be 'conservative' and what will be 'liberal'. Conservatives used to have some validity when they promoted such virtues as probity, rationality, thrift, self-reliance, loyalty, and community. Now what passes for conservatism is the endorsement of an entrenched hierarchy in which those in the economic elites can follow the dictum "Do what thou wilt" while demanding that others accept the consequences as the Will of God.

Probity, rationality, thrift, self-reliance, loyalty, and community? Do those better fit Dwight Eisenhower or Donald Trump?

The definitive moderate Republican may have been Dwight Eisenhower, and I have heard plenty of Democrats praise the Eisenhower Presidency. He went along with Supreme Court rulings that outlawed segregationist practices, stayed clear of the McCarthy bandwagon, and let McCarthy implode.



gray -- did not vote in 1952 or 1956
white -- Eisenhower twice, Obama twice
deep blue -- Republican all four elections
light blue -- Republican all but 2012 (I assume that greater Omaha went for Ike twice)
light green -- Eisenhower once, Stevenson once, Obama never
dark green -- Stevenson twice, Obama never
pink -- Stevenson twice, Obama once

No state voted Democratic all four times, so no state is in deep red.

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Although the political cultures of some states have changed in 52 to 60 years, such cannot explain why the party loyalties of most states are practical opposites. Only one state went three times for the Democratic nominees in those two elections, and none went four times Democratic. The states may have changed far more than the Republican and Democratic Parties.

Rather few states went Republican all four times (but one of those is Texas). I look at the map and I suspect that in those states that went Republican all four times have more ranching than dairying. Ranch hands and dairy workers may both be involved with cattle on the job, but their working conditions are very different. Dairy workers work like and are treated more like industrial workers; ranch hands need a world created by the ranch owners. The ranch hand probably gets and needs housing and food supplied by the rancher. Tennessee is an oddity here.