04-24-2021, 10:31 PM
There is no timetable for the demise of political systems. The United States of America is already one of the most durable political orders to have ever existed. It now has the second-oldest political order without an unconstitutional or forcible exchange of power.
The USA turns 245 on July 4, and the only older political system in existence is the Hanoverian dynasty in the UK, which passed the 300 year mark a few years ago. The USA is now older than most Egyptian and Chinese dynasties ever got.
Other comparisons? The Romanov dynasty survived for 303 years. I obviously won't be around to collect the bet, but many people now alive (the youngest will 58 years old then) will see the USA outlast the Romanov dynasty. Betting against the survival of the United States has been a sucker bet, with the last person making such a bet being hanged as a war criminal and the second-to-last offing himself in a fetid bunker. Switzerland and the Netherlands date for all practical purposes from the settlement of the Napoleonic era and the Bernardotte dynasty of Sweden arises from Napoleon setting up one of his marshals in Sweden -- who eventually turned against Napoleon and became the progenitor of the current royal family. Those are the third-, fourth-, and fifth-oldest continuing regimes in the world. (The Netherlands was under Nazi occupation during most of World War II, but it had formal continuation in some colonies in the New World).
Yes, I know about the Roman Empire, a valid comparison to the USA for maximal size and influence.... but the Roman Empire was rotten from its inception and lasted over 500 years. The USA keeps redefining itself, usually in positive ways. Donald Trump was the worst redefinition, and it is safe to say that he will not be back politically.
The USA turns 245 on July 4, and the only older political system in existence is the Hanoverian dynasty in the UK, which passed the 300 year mark a few years ago. The USA is now older than most Egyptian and Chinese dynasties ever got.
Other comparisons? The Romanov dynasty survived for 303 years. I obviously won't be around to collect the bet, but many people now alive (the youngest will 58 years old then) will see the USA outlast the Romanov dynasty. Betting against the survival of the United States has been a sucker bet, with the last person making such a bet being hanged as a war criminal and the second-to-last offing himself in a fetid bunker. Switzerland and the Netherlands date for all practical purposes from the settlement of the Napoleonic era and the Bernardotte dynasty of Sweden arises from Napoleon setting up one of his marshals in Sweden -- who eventually turned against Napoleon and became the progenitor of the current royal family. Those are the third-, fourth-, and fifth-oldest continuing regimes in the world. (The Netherlands was under Nazi occupation during most of World War II, but it had formal continuation in some colonies in the New World).
Yes, I know about the Roman Empire, a valid comparison to the USA for maximal size and influence.... but the Roman Empire was rotten from its inception and lasted over 500 years. The USA keeps redefining itself, usually in positive ways. Donald Trump was the worst redefinition, and it is safe to say that he will not be back politically.
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated Communist but instead the people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists -- Hannah Arendt.