10-02-2016, 01:13 PM
What I have found intriguing is how all the articles I have seen have mentioned the 1850's (i.e. the building to the Civil War 4T) as a key thing in the book, yet Turchin as this as a mid-cycle burst of instability, like the 13th century Baron's wars or the mid-Tudor crisis, which are not major episodes of unrest according to secular cycle theory.
I see the Civil War as a big deal, an example of state breakdown that marks the boundary of a secular cycle. That is I think in modern industrial societies, Turchin's secular cycle is essentially the same as S&H's saecular cycle. It is clear he hasn't changed his views, but how does he see the Civil War? Another reason why I am eager the read the book.
What is important about this question is, Turchin's first secular cycle spans TWO saecula. Does he think we are nearing the end of the second one (1930- ) soon (which would mean this secular cycle is ONE saecula long) or not?
I see the Civil War as a big deal, an example of state breakdown that marks the boundary of a secular cycle. That is I think in modern industrial societies, Turchin's secular cycle is essentially the same as S&H's saecular cycle. It is clear he hasn't changed his views, but how does he see the Civil War? Another reason why I am eager the read the book.
What is important about this question is, Turchin's first secular cycle spans TWO saecula. Does he think we are nearing the end of the second one (1930- ) soon (which would mean this secular cycle is ONE saecula long) or not?