The graph is my own construction. The thick black line is CF (capitalist fraction), defined as
CF = 1 – (1-S)*LFPR*w% – SS% where
S is the fraction of the population that are slaves; SS% is employer supplements to wages & salaries as a percent of GDP, LFPR is Labor Force Population Ratio and w% is employment-adjusted relative wage:
w% = wage (1-U%)/0.96 / GDPpc
Obviously SS% is zero in the 19th century (no social insurance) and S is zero after 1865. Before the 1870's there are no U% values so I use a value of 4%. Thus for these early times w% is wage/GDPpc. I was able to estimate LFPR values before the 1940's (when official statistics begin) by using a regression with household size to estimate it as a function of household size back to 1850. Before that it is fixed at 0.5. So if you go back to the early nation CF = 1- (1-S)/2 wage/GDPpc.
Turchin uses wage/GDPpc as a measure in population economic well-being. Low values signify high inequality. CF is a proxy for the fraction of wealth creation that does not go to workers, high values signify high inequality. If you assume S = 0, CF and Turchin's measures tell the same story.
The reason CF rises sharply at the Civil War is that prices rose faster than wages during the war, which shows up as a spike up in inequality. The sharp drop after reflects the effect of changing S from 0.14 to 0, and the relaxation of the inflation spike with the end of the war.
The vertical lines are my proposed secular cycle boundaries.
There won't be more information until I write the paper, and there is at least one in the queue ahead of it. I don't have a convenient outlet on the net for putting out stuff except for Safehaven but this stuff is not financial.
CF = 1 – (1-S)*LFPR*w% – SS% where
S is the fraction of the population that are slaves; SS% is employer supplements to wages & salaries as a percent of GDP, LFPR is Labor Force Population Ratio and w% is employment-adjusted relative wage:
w% = wage (1-U%)/0.96 / GDPpc
Obviously SS% is zero in the 19th century (no social insurance) and S is zero after 1865. Before the 1870's there are no U% values so I use a value of 4%. Thus for these early times w% is wage/GDPpc. I was able to estimate LFPR values before the 1940's (when official statistics begin) by using a regression with household size to estimate it as a function of household size back to 1850. Before that it is fixed at 0.5. So if you go back to the early nation CF = 1- (1-S)/2 wage/GDPpc.
Turchin uses wage/GDPpc as a measure in population economic well-being. Low values signify high inequality. CF is a proxy for the fraction of wealth creation that does not go to workers, high values signify high inequality. If you assume S = 0, CF and Turchin's measures tell the same story.
The reason CF rises sharply at the Civil War is that prices rose faster than wages during the war, which shows up as a spike up in inequality. The sharp drop after reflects the effect of changing S from 0.14 to 0, and the relaxation of the inflation spike with the end of the war.
The vertical lines are my proposed secular cycle boundaries.
There won't be more information until I write the paper, and there is at least one in the queue ahead of it. I don't have a convenient outlet on the net for putting out stuff except for Safehaven but this stuff is not financial.