The New Crisis War Unfolding Now?

[pbrower2a]

(07-21-2018, 02:17 PM)Marypoza Wrote:

(07-19-2018, 09:59 PM)TheNomad Wrote:

(07-19-2018, 02:44 PM)David Horn Wrote:

(07-19-2018, 02:07 PM)Marypoza Wrote:

(07-09-2018, 12:40 PM)David Horn Wrote: Can we have a 4T without a hot shooting war?  Yes, I think so.  The only restriction I would impose, as if I have any authority to impose anything, is the need for a clash of ideas that invalidates one set of arguments while validating the other.  Using war as a tool is intellectually easy, but getting there without war isn't impossible, just unlikely.  A more likely outcome, sans war, would be a truce or some sort that tilted more one way than another … think the armistice on the Korean peninsula as an example, albeit one that required war to achieve.  Typically, we would consider that a failed 4T.

-- of course a civil war doesn't necessarily have to be a war with traditional armies or militias. Just look @ the cops, the police brutality. It could devolve into a situation where groups of ppl fight back guerilla style. Or maybe the mob gets involved like in the 1920s. Of course that was over Prohibition. I can't think of anything these daze that would cause the mob to ramp it up like they did in the 1920s. But l see situations where groups of ppl band together against police brutality, destabilizing cities, the Govt steps in, & then they are fighting the Govt, & at that point maybe the mob would get involved. I dunno

The one viable option I simply forgot is cyber war.  It's the exact opposite of the neutron bomb, that would have been designed to kill everyone but do no harm to the infrastructure.  Cyber destroys the infrastructure, and leaves all the people alive and wondering what to do next.

BUT is that akin to an invasion or a hostile takeover?  If a "cyber war" type of thing is what we are looking for as a signal, is that not the same as the 2008 financial graft that still lingers in America even now a decade later?  I think of it as "was there a winner and a loser"?  I'm not sure like even if there was some natural disaster like an earthquake that decimated Japan and the civilization was brought low, is that really a 4T event?  There was no real "winner" in that and things were not "reset" so much as just left destroyed. 

But I think possibly based on the s/h text, civilizations CAN in a 4T simply collapse and never return?  Maybe there doesn't have to be a winner.  What does anyone think?

-- l think it depends upon the natural disaster. If Yellowstone blows big time, which it does every 600,000 yrs or so give or take a few- & it is supposedly some 40,000 yrs overdue- then the United States & Canada would both be toast. So yeah our civilization would collapse. But never return? I'm thinking something will rise up from the volcanic ashes

The weak Carolingian Renaissance and the stronger Italian Renaissance (basically the beginning of our modern world) both resulted from people rediscovering some (the weak Carolingian Renaissance) or much (the Italian Renaissance) of the great intellectual treasure of the Classical world. Of course, people like Michelangelo, Petrarch, and Leonardo were far closer to us than they were to being Romans; indeed, the more that they started to innovate and of course recognized that modern vernaculars were more satisfying vehicles for expression than were classical Latin and Greek for their feelings, they knew that they were no longer Romans. This is especially true for such people as the English, Dutch, Flemings, Germans, Scandinavians, Irish, Czechs, and Poles who knew that they had practically no Roman heritage.

Let us remember that the great bulk of Western civilization is now in Latin America, and no longer in Europe and the US. As it is, Latin  America has a vibrant literary scene and it is rich in good translations of literature and technological material from English.

Another eruption of the Supervolcano in Yellowstone? That could bring back an ice age, and there would not be enough food for the world's population of dogs or cats, let alone us. But even if the world population were to go to a million or so (it would be that bad), there would be huge repositories of adequate material for a restart of technological civilization. A high-school library would be enough. Human nature is what it is, always seeking an easy way out from boredom of all kinds, including numbing toil.