Who Can Beat Trump?

[pbrower2a]

(08-24-2018, 04:01 PM)Galen Wrote:

(08-22-2018, 06:24 AM)Kinser79 Wrote:

(08-22-2018, 03:35 AM)Galen Wrote:

(08-21-2018, 10:13 PM)Kinser79 Wrote: The Dims have been out to lunch for quite some time now.  I've not considered them to be a serious party in ages, and their establishment is even more out to lunch than the laity.

Do the Dims have more than sheer outrage at Trump to offer?  So far, after the last two years the answer seems to be no.  In the end people will look at their wallet and decide if they are better off.  Judging from how certain demographics are reacting it may be that many are coming to the conclusion that the Dims do not have anything to offer.

It is clear that we are in a fourth turning and it seems that the usual rules are breaking down which is to be expected in a Fourth Turning.  It would not be surprising if Trump is recognized as a necessary disruption to the status quo in the future.

I would argue he is more than that.  He is providing not only the necessary disruption to the previous status quo, but also providing the vision required to set up a new status quo.  In short he is in fact the quote, unquote, long awaited Gray Champion.  His main problem with the libtards liberal Boomers on this board is that he isn't the Gray Champion that they wanted.

An unfortunate consequence of more people living to elderhood seems to be that there more people around to whine about how their favorite pet project from the 2T isn't at the forefront of the 4T.

It is far too early to tell if Trump is the Grey Champion but he is definitely not playing the same game as the usual Beltway crowd.  He is best understood by using Scott Adams Master Persuader Model.  So far the press is calling the mid-terms for the Dims just like they did with with the Hildabeast in 2016.  While it won't be known until after the election it would not surprise me if the MSM was gas-lighting the public again.  I suggest that Pbrower check for oversampling of Dims in the polls since that is what they did in 2016.

1. Americans do not tolerate corruption by elected officials. They accept no excuses. They want any politician who embezzles, takes bribes, or solicits bribes. This is not a partisan statement, as it applies to both Democrats and Republicans.

2. Americans do not trust the tariffs to work for America. A trade war can put an end to the Obama-era recovery. Donald Trump was effective in ensuring that people who would endure the pain or feel offense at his policy changes were the same people who were never going to vote for him. He walked that tightrope well. Any trade war likely hurts people who usually vote Republican through reduced income and higher costs of living. Tax cuts will be inadequate compensation for reduced income from lower revenues and higher costs.

If there is any organization that I would like to see conduct a poll now it would be the arch-conservative National Farm Bureau, advocates for farmers and ranchers and their economic interests. I'm guessing that Trump could be hurting farmers and ranchers -- in which case he loses approval in several states that have never voted for a Republican for president since 1964.

I would have never expected this -- but I did not expect so incompetent and impulsive person to ever become President... until he actually became President.

3. The most likely view of Donald Trump is that he will be an example of what not to do as President. The next President will not make the same mistakes, whatever his ideology. A conservative President will not divide NATO, will not pretend that vicious racists are nice people, will not get cozy with authoritarian regimes but instead make arms-length deals that imply that the deals are good enough for both to make compliance certain, will undo the Trump tariffs, and will insist upon due process of law even when such frustrates his agenda.

As Herodotus puts it, character is destiny... and the character of Donald Trump is undeniably horrible.

4. Grey champion? Can anyone compare Donald Trump to Benjamin Franklin, Samuel Adams, Benjamin D'israeli, Abraham Lincoln, Giuseppe Garibaldi, Benito Juarez, Sun Yat Sen, Mohandas Gandhi, Leon Blum, Sir Winston Churchill, Franklin Roosevelt, Carl Mannerheim, or Konrad Adenauer?

5. This is no longer the autumn of 2016. We are still stuck with the electoral results of the November 2016 election. Donald Trump has imposed the most revolutionary changes in American politics since the Civil War. As demonstrated by some very bad leaders who achieved power in their own revolutions, revolution is not reliably benign. Donald Trump is so offensive to Americans that he has disapproval of a majority even without a military or diplomatic debacle having materialized, and without an economic meltdown.

STATES THAT DONALD TRUMP WON OR LOST BY 10% OR LESS IN 2016:

ST APP DIS MGN-16

NM 35  54    -8
VA  32  53    -5
CO 34  52    -5
ME 32  54    -3
NV  42 55    -2
MN  40 54    -1  (REQ 30-60)
NH  41 54    -0   (REQ 41-50, maybe as much as 41-57)
MI   41 54    +0  (REQ 28-60)
PA  37 53    +1
WI  45 53    +1  (REQ 31-63)
FL   42 46    +1  (REQ 37-54)
AZ  42 52    +4   (REQ 35-57)
NC  43  50    +4
GA  46  49    +5
OH  42  51   +8   (REQ 34-58)
TX  47  45    +9
IA   44  49    +9

ST is the postal code of the state, APP is the approval rating of the President in the latest poll, DIS is the disapproval rating in the latest poll, and MGN-16 is the margin of the Trump loss if negative or the Trump win in 2016. REQ for seven states (it is not available yet) is a response to the question "Do you expect to vote to re-elect the President or do you expect to not vote to re-elect the President". For one of the states (NH) I have an ambiguity because I have combined "strong likelihood" and "mere likelihood" for voting to re-elect him but given Trump more leeway with people who say that they are simply "unlikely" to vote for him. I am very cautious with statistical models as predictive devices.

Can Trump win re-election in 2020? Sure.

1. if the political culture shifts to endorse the Trump way of thought in the next two years. Not likely. He is not the sort who wins people over from the Other Side. He is no great speaker or thinker, and there is no religious shift making people more 'conservative' as happened under Reagan.

2. He must lower Americans' expectations. Anyone old enough to vote will remember Obama, whom the vast majority of Americans consider far better.

3. The Democrats must splinter in the nomination process or nominate someone of unprecedented ineptitude. Possible, but somehow I consider the defeat of Donald Trump an objective not to be sacrificed.It is more likely that a conservative secedes from supporting the President or that a conservative alternative takes a big chunk of Republican-leaning votes from him.

4. He can make a sharp turn in his Presidency and start doing much more right. I doubt this. Once one gets on his bad side one stays on his bad side.

5. HE CAN CHEAT. Rigged election? God help us!


...I distrust a President who acts more dictatorially or despotically than any previous President.


Finally -- this is no longer the autumn of 2016. Many who gave him a chance then regret their vote. Few regret not voting for him. Donald Trump got elected by winning the right votes instead of winning the majority. Nothing has yet happened to give him more support than he got in 2016. Nothing says that he will pick up any state that he lost in 2016, and he stands to lose states that he must win to get re-elected. Yes, he has changed the political climate of America, but not to his advantage.