Who Can Beat Trump?

[Bob Butler 54]

(08-24-2018, 04:01 PM)Galen Wrote:

(08-22-2018, 06:24 AM)Kinser79 Wrote:

(08-22-2018, 03:35 AM)Galen Wrote:

(08-21-2018, 10:13 PM)Kinser79 Wrote: The Dims have been out to lunch for quite some time now.  I've not considered them to be a serious party in ages, and their establishment is even more out to lunch than the laity.

Do the Dims have more than sheer outrage at Trump to offer?  So far, after the last two years the answer seems to be no.  In the end people will look at their wallet and decide if they are better off.  Judging from how certain demographics are reacting it may be that many are coming to the conclusion that the Dims do not have anything to offer.

It is clear that we are in a fourth turning and it seems that the usual rules are breaking down which is to be expected in a Fourth Turning.  It would not be surprising if Trump is recognized as a necessary disruption to the status quo in the future.

I would argue he is more than that.  He is providing not only the necessary disruption to the previous status quo, but also providing the vision required to set up a new status quo.  In short he is in fact the quote, unquote, long awaited Gray Champion.  His main problem with the libtards liberal Boomers on this board is that he isn't the Gray Champion that they wanted.

An unfortunate consequence of more people living to elderhood seems to be that there more people around to whine about how their favorite pet project from the 2T isn't at the forefront of the 4T.

It is far too early to tell if Trump is the Grey Champion but he is definitely not playing the same game as the usual Beltway crowd.  He is best understood by using Scott Adams Master Persuader Model.  So far the press is calling the mid-terms for the Dims just like they did with with the Hildabeast in 2016.  While it won't be known until after the election it would not surprise me if the MSM was gas-lighting the public again.  I suggest that Pbrower check for oversampling of Dims in the polls since that is what they did in 2016.

I don’t see Trump as the  Grey Champion.  He is an abuser of women and encourages racists.  As such, he not only goes against the Whig arrow of progress, but the Peoples idea of what should be tolerated.  Every once in a while, the culture starts rejecting behavior that was previously accepted.  Recently the traditional priestly abuse of children generated outrage, the rainbow flag has triumped, and abuse of women with the Me Too movement has risen.  There are counter movements.  With the rise of Trump has come a boldness in the direction of racism.  It is an issue of the times.

Trump is also with the capitalistic class.  He hired a bunch of billionaires.  He worked with the Republican Party, which is traditionally with the capitalists.  The Grey Champion is generally a supporter of the people, rather than the elite.

On another front, what is the see saw?  Why does power keep switching between the parties?  What period is it switching?

The People keep checking the party which pretends at a mandate.  The president attempts to forward the agenda that put him in power, but he generally loses the Congress in the process.  He really only has two years to push and doesn’t get far as the other party pushes back.  However, the country as a whole is not in favor of either agenda.  They will elect a congress that opposes the president.  This is true of Obama and Obamacare as it is with Trump.

Trump won a minority victory and is pushing an extreme agenda.  I anticipate he has flipped the see saw.  We will see with the midterms.

In the longer term, the incumbent seems to have the advantage holding on to the presidency.  We have had a number of two term presidents lately.  Trump would have to make himself very unpopular to lose to a no-name Democratic candidate.  Again, we will have to see.  I think he is that unpopular.

Bush 43 seems to be worth looking at.  He was traditionally unpopular, his rating most of the time was falling.  He had three big bounces though, after September 11, after the invasion of Afghanistan, and after the invasion of Iraq.  Americans traditionally rally to their president with major military actions.  One such action, resulting in one such bounce, Iraq, made Bush 43 a two term president.

Could Trump use this effect?  Could he time a military action just before the 2020 elections?

It would not be easy.  The Cut and Run side beat the Stay the Course side with Iraq.  American values today do not favor commitment of US ground troops abroad.  Just because it is not easy doesn’t mean it won’t be tried.

In the Middle East, it is also against the arrow of progress.  In Syria, the various factions are more loyal to religious, tribal or political local structures than the Enlightenment notions of tolerance and equality.  The locals will fight for their own.  The people with modern ideals have left already.  Eventually, the newer values might have an edge.  They would be expected to triumph.  Certainly, the current stalemate has nothing to be valued.  Switching to modern values takes years, takes generations.  Look at how many wars the Europeans and Americans had to fight.  Why should we expect the Middle East to be quicker, more flexible?

In the long term, I would expect the Whig arrow of progress to triumph… in the very long term.  In the same way, I would say the current battle for equality in America will stick.  Women will not be abused as much.  Minorities will become more equal.  US citizens will have their rights.  As such, I do not expect anyone to seriously call Trump the Grey Champion.  He is just on the wrong side of the arrow of progress.

Is he not playing the same game as the usual Beltway crowd?  Oh, yah.  That is one place where I would agree with Galen.  One upside of the Trump era is how the People rejected the establishment.

But…. If unilateral, serial nation building had worked, we would call Bush 43 Grey Champion.  If Obamacare had been embraced by the whole county, we would call Obama Grey Champion.  Two big ifs. Both  presidents tried to spread their values to the nation, but failed.  Trump, too, is failing.  The majority that opposed him in 2016 has been joined by others.  Thus, the see saw remains in play.

To become Grey Champion, your new values which transform the country have to be seen by a clear majority to work.  That is not easy in a time when the organized media and politicians are ready to point at things and say “Not Working!”