Politico just released a poll of hypothetical 2020 Presidential candidates

[Kinser79]

(03-10-2017, 04:22 PM)Galen Wrote:

(03-10-2017, 03:50 PM)Kinser79 Wrote:

(03-10-2017, 04:22 AM)Galen Wrote: I mark the start of the fourth turning at 2008.  While 2024 is a good date my own suspicion is that you will know the fourth turning is ending when it becomes obvious the American Empire is over.  Whether that end looks the the end of the British or Roman empires remains to be seen.

Judging from Ryan's Obozocare light bill it is clear that the GOP elites also plan on business as usual.  The problem with a fourth turning is that the business as usual is what got you here.  It doesn't sound like the GOP base agrees with that plan.  This rejection of business as usual is how they ended up with Trump.

As for Ryan I have a feeling that he won't pass his Obamacare 2.0 bill.  It's already DOA in the Senate according to such persons as Paul, Cruz and Suzanne Collins.  A Libertarian, a Evangelical and a Milquetoast Conservative respectively.  In the House the Freedom Caucus won't vote for it, the Democrats are unlikely to (they like Obamacare 1.0 thanks) and there are some 30 other reps saying that they oppose it outside the Freedom Caucus.

When those three groups agree that something is a bad idea your bill is toast.  The only thing all of them agree on is that Obozocare has to go so it seems most likely that is precisely what will happen.  Indeed, Rand Paul reintroduced the same repeal that already passed last year.  I like Rand better when he isn't running for President.

(03-10-2017, 03:50 PM)Kinser79 Wrote: As such he's down 70 votes from the 218 he needs to pass.  Since it is such a major policy item for his agenda I suspect that he will likely be forced to resigned if he can't pass the bill out of the House.  I honestly believe it is DOA in the Senate for various reasons (and would likely be vetoed if it by some miracle ended up on Daddy's desk).

I very much doubt Trump is going to get the debt ceiling increase he has hinted that he wants without some major spending cuts to go with it.  The Liberty Caucus not to mention the fiscal and social conservatives really don't like Ryan because he is seen as being as spineless as Boehner was.

1. Well not only are those three disparate groups of the GOP against Obamacare 2.0 but so is the expanded base. The GOP establishment may not like it but the Democrats are collapsing and will be relegated to a fringe party soon. There is talk in some circles already that primaries are being planned based on how the votes line up on Obamacare 2.0.

2. I'd be fine with spending cuts. I'm sure there are plenty of things that can and should be cut. We can start with the CIA, NSA, and work our way down to the old New Deal infrastructure. When the water stinks the dam must be broken.