Start of the new cycle

[pbrower2a]

(10-09-2018, 12:56 PM)David Horn Wrote:

(10-08-2018, 09:19 AM)sbarrera Wrote: One thing that could cause the 4T to drag is the stubborn persistence of the Silent generation in leadership roles, both in government and business. I still voted for 2025-29, though, with the thought that it would be late in that time frame. That still gives three exciting Presidential elections. Maybe 2028 will be the 1T election. I think there is a chance it could be 2032 that is the 1T election, but the odds are not in favor of that.

I agree.  The persistence of the "fading" generation in positions of power warps the S&H pattern substantially.  The moderating influence of Artists is probably less toxic than the hubris older Boomers will provide in the next 1T, but it's still acting to suppress the emerging pattern that needs to run its course.  In fact, it may act to mute the process sufficiently that the regeneracy never really congeals, and the challenges never get fully addressed.  


With lifetimes growing every generation, this may eventually kill the cycle entirely.  Of course, we'll never live to see it-- which brings us to timing.  I can't see the current 4T running-on for an extended period while we collectively try to resolve our crises.  At some point, the emotional level has to drop, individuality has to recede and something akin to a 1T has to start.  We're human, and maintaining that level of intensity is impossible.

It has been a rare time in American history in which there has been a transition from four active adult generations through five to four as there was when Millennials came on the political and economic scene while GIs disappeared. Consider 2005

GI, Civic/Hero  81+
Silent, Adaptive/Artist  63-80
Boom, Idealist/Prophet 45-62
X, Reactive/Nomad 24-44
Millennial 23 or younger

among adults.

GI influence was not yet dead, as there were still plenty of them in positions of high responsibility. To be sure, this was an awkward time as the Civic component of public and economic life was going from being very old to wet-behind-the-ears. The truly awkward times in history are those in which one of the generational components of history is fully lacking in public life.

The GIs have set a pattern of staying active in public life and staying fit as long as possible. There may be limits, but this could be the difference between having having some very elderly people reminding us of what is then weak in public life and that such is a good model  for young adults -- rather than having young adults find out the hard way.

I see no detriment to older people staying active as long as possible. The Silent are following the GI pattern of staying physically active and
socially attached quite well, and I see signs that Boomers will do much the same. X? Ask again in about fifteen years.

I remember the Lost getting left behind. Unable to adapt to the highly-mobile, rapidly-changing world of the 1960s they often got sent to the "Home For the Golden Years" -- while their child and spouse, and grandkids took a cross-country relocation to advance the career of one or the other. Maybe that will happen again just in time for X to get such treatment. Grandpa or Grandma was simply not going to move from Greater Milwaukee to Greater Denver.