11-08-2016, 05:16 PM
Sigh. Fans of History channel keep seeing violence as the only possible outcome from this episode of high political stress (psi) see post below:
http://generational-theory.com/forum/thr...l#pid11619
It is true that previous episodes of high psi have led to civil conflict, I would point out that the last few in Anglo-America have not. The 19th century 4T in the UK and the next one did not feature civil conflict. Nether did the last 4T in America. Conservatives, who do not believe in a changeable human nature, would bet on history where the vast majority of high-psi episodes have resulted in internal war.
But there is the FACT that we had a full-fledged 4T with a total rework of the government, what can only be called a political revolution, in the last 4T WITHOUT a civil war. Ask a conservative how that happened and you will get a whirl of hand-waving. Ask a liberal and they will break out the oils and incense and talk about the evolution of a higher consciousness, or simply point to Progress.
Yet the bald fact is there was no civil war. Hell there wasn't even much internal violence. My database shows 79 episode of sociopolitical instability with 520 dead over 1929-1937. Compare this to a couple of decades previously:
219 episodes with 1327 dead over 1912-22; or with the 130 events and 629 dead from the 2T violence. Look at today. There are riots, but almost no deaths, so they don't get counted in the database. if you want to count them then you would have to add the large number of huge demonstrations in the last 2T. Either way, in terms of measures of protest, today is nothing.
On one hand you have the media playing up all these BLM protests like that are some sort of big deal, and then you have the 70 year old Trump (who can remember the 2T) noting that today's protests are a joke: nobody even gets hurt. You have these Bundy clowns all gunned up and facing off with the Feds and then nothing happens. You have Classic Xer ominously warning about how Trump's white working class America will explode. Yeah right.
In actuality, Trump's white working class are doing just fine. It's their sons and particularly their son's friends who are not doing fine. They are worried. They don't know what is happening. So they blame the liberals.
Same thing with Sander's youth. They go to college as some sort of talisman that they can use to achieve a "normal" life (i.e. what they grew up with). Outside of technical fields like computer science, engineering, medicine or business, it is not (and never had been) clear how a college degree translates into a career. Today's youth who got to college do pursue STEM fields or business: about 55% of graduates with compared to just 32% in the arts, humanities & social sciences. When I went to school it was the opposite. Today we have a glut of STEM and business grads. What to do with them? Herd them into cubicles engaged in continue feverish, pointless activity that is nevertheless very profitable.
And so it goes.
http://generational-theory.com/forum/thr...l#pid11619
It is true that previous episodes of high psi have led to civil conflict, I would point out that the last few in Anglo-America have not. The 19th century 4T in the UK and the next one did not feature civil conflict. Nether did the last 4T in America. Conservatives, who do not believe in a changeable human nature, would bet on history where the vast majority of high-psi episodes have resulted in internal war.
But there is the FACT that we had a full-fledged 4T with a total rework of the government, what can only be called a political revolution, in the last 4T WITHOUT a civil war. Ask a conservative how that happened and you will get a whirl of hand-waving. Ask a liberal and they will break out the oils and incense and talk about the evolution of a higher consciousness, or simply point to Progress.
Yet the bald fact is there was no civil war. Hell there wasn't even much internal violence. My database shows 79 episode of sociopolitical instability with 520 dead over 1929-1937. Compare this to a couple of decades previously:
219 episodes with 1327 dead over 1912-22; or with the 130 events and 629 dead from the 2T violence. Look at today. There are riots, but almost no deaths, so they don't get counted in the database. if you want to count them then you would have to add the large number of huge demonstrations in the last 2T. Either way, in terms of measures of protest, today is nothing.
On one hand you have the media playing up all these BLM protests like that are some sort of big deal, and then you have the 70 year old Trump (who can remember the 2T) noting that today's protests are a joke: nobody even gets hurt. You have these Bundy clowns all gunned up and facing off with the Feds and then nothing happens. You have Classic Xer ominously warning about how Trump's white working class America will explode. Yeah right.
In actuality, Trump's white working class are doing just fine. It's their sons and particularly their son's friends who are not doing fine. They are worried. They don't know what is happening. So they blame the liberals.
Same thing with Sander's youth. They go to college as some sort of talisman that they can use to achieve a "normal" life (i.e. what they grew up with). Outside of technical fields like computer science, engineering, medicine or business, it is not (and never had been) clear how a college degree translates into a career. Today's youth who got to college do pursue STEM fields or business: about 55% of graduates with compared to just 32% in the arts, humanities & social sciences. When I went to school it was the opposite. Today we have a glut of STEM and business grads. What to do with them? Herd them into cubicles engaged in continue feverish, pointless activity that is nevertheless very profitable.
And so it goes.