11-11-2016, 01:40 PM
(This post was last modified: 11-11-2016, 01:45 PM by Eric the Green.)
(11-11-2016, 10:58 AM)Warren Dew Wrote: The Islamic State is only a local power, though. If they truly expanded to central control of franchises throughout the Islamic world - and let's recall that goes as far as Indonesia - maybe. Trump would have to do a great job of leaving them alone to expand first, which would take - possibly more than 8 years.
Another possibility is that some time in his second term Russia pushes him too far in what he views as a betrayal.
Or the rest of the world could come up with a war we could intervene in. I think that's the most likely alternative to civil war.
Although, if the left continues supporting the antidemocracy protests as they get violent, it may yet be civil war. That would at least have the advantage that nuclear weapons probably wouldn't be used. Unless Washington state actually gets to the point of secession.
You stumbled into the truth in this post. Secessions are likely, and I don't know when or from which side. If the Left gets back in power somehow in 2022-2024 then it could be red states that secede. If chaos increases too much before then, then it will be Washington or California and/or the Northeast Coast that secedes, and maybe joins Canada.
The possibility of the Russian betrayal is what I have also written about before. Some hope that a Trump-Putin bromance will bear fruit, but given their mutual tendency to be unstable and vengeful, who knows what will happen.
Trump has promised to smash ISIS, so he'll try. But having such an incompetent CIC probably means delay of success at best, and less support from the people there who are bombed or have their families tortured. War with Iran is much more likely, since they will go back to building up their nucs. But when and if they succeed before Israel and the USA attack them and start a war, it will be harder to attack them. So, more stalemate, anxiety and nuc proliferation in the middle east is a likely scenario.