(07-22-2019, 10:44 AM)David Horn Wrote: I tend to see this as highly likely. A political resolution requires some degree of consensus. How does that occur?
It's hard to see how, which is why I doubt we are in a 4T.
As for why I don't like the term "failed 4T", consider the generation who started coming of age in 1773 and finished doing so when the crisis era was resolved by calling the Constitutional Convention in 1787 (so they were born over 1752-66). Let's call them the Republicans to make them consistent with S&H's name for the 1743-66 generation.
The Republicans are a Civic-type generation which is supposed to preside over a 2T like the GI's did for the last 2T. This generation filled a majority of the leadership positions between ca. 1801 and 1815. According to McLoughlin, the Second Great Awakening began around 1800, so let's tentatively call this period a 2T. The generation who came of age during this time (analogous to the Boomers) were born over 1780-1794. Let's call them Jeffersonians. They filled a majority of leadership positions around ca. 1830-44, just as Boomers do over ca. 2003-2023.
Now we don't consider 1830-44 a failed 4T. In fact, S&H place this whole period in an Awakening, even though McLoughlin holds that the Second Great Awakening ended about 1830. Let's call the turning an "Awokening" because can think of era as one when a younger generation became "woke" to the evil of slavery. he Transcendental generation, who came of age over this time, were born over 1809-1823. They are analogous to the generation born over 1982-2002, i.e. the Millennials.
The Transcendentals came to power over 1861-76, which is clearly a 4T. The millennials will come to power over ca. 2044-65. Maybe that will be a 4T.
Alternatively, this turning could still pan out as a 4T and the saeculum have four turnings like the last one.