11-10-2019, 11:29 PM
(11-10-2019, 10:44 AM)David Horn Wrote:(11-09-2019, 07:34 PM)Eric the Green Wrote:(11-09-2019, 07:11 PM)Anthony Wrote: The impeachment campaign is making it less likely for the Democrats to win in 2020. It's a dead turn-off for swing voters, who are as powerful as ever.
Besides, to quote a line from Godfather 2, there will be no way, Michael - no way that 20 Republicans will cross the aisle and vote to remove Trump from office.
David's point is well-taken. The Democrats would lose even more voters if they refuse to take action on such violations of ethics in office. To do so is to admit that Trump can get away with anything, which sets a bad precedent to say the least. It is their duty to impeach, whether some voters like it or not.
Impeachment may be shoring up Trump's base in white-majority-low education-working class states including crucial PA, WI and MI. He seems to have been further behind there before now. If this sticks, then the Democrats are in trouble. This may be temporary though, as voters there remember again how little Trump has helped them and how poorly he has behaved in office. It will only take about 44,000 Trump voters in those 3 states to change their mind, or that combined with more young and ethnic Democrats thinking they can better relate to the Democratic candidate in 2020 than they did to Hillary, and coming out instead of staying home.
Trump likely only needs 46% of the national popular vote to win again. Knowing this, no Democrat can be complacent that Mussolini won't deceive the voters again with his powerful personality (and his 9-4 score that's better than all other candidates).
I was around for the Nixon debacle, and this smells a lot like that -- only worse. Nothing will alter the mindset of the True Trumpers; independents, on the other hand, are in play. Do we know with any degree of certainly, how that group will split if the impeachment goes through? No we don't. We can be almost certain that the GOP-controlled Senate will give him a free pass. At that point, it's up to the Dems to make that a campaign issue against the entire party.
Winning the Presidency is inadequate this time. It's all-in or nothing.
I say much the same. Once the effort to extort political skullduggery from the President of Ukraine, impeachment went from a pipe dream to a necessity. Where does it stop? Could the President offer territory to ensure the win of an election?
The most fervent supporters of Donald Trump are close to a siege mentality as what passes for moderates flee. As a cause narrows, it often becomes more fanatical in its ideology.
Republicans today are unlikely to see any long term other than ever-expanding profit and power, with pie-in-the-sky as a promise to those who suffer wholeheartedly for asset owners and the corporate nomenklatura. On the other hand, what can non-Republicans learn from Trump getting away with what he has gotten away with?
Be completely ruthless, show contempt for anyone not fully with the cause, and lie, cheat, and steal with impunity because the Party will excuse anything with a handsome deal for the complicit. Go ahead and run as a demagogue, for you will get away with it.
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated Communist but instead the people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists -- Hannah Arendt.