(12-19-2016, 09:17 PM)Warren Dew Wrote:(12-19-2016, 07:59 PM)Mikebert Wrote:(12-10-2016, 01:50 AM)Warren Dew Wrote: China could reduce tariffs on our products, and improve intellectual property law enforcement.Why would they do that? What leverage would Trump have besides tariffs--which you seem to be ruling out.
Mexico could impose worker and environmental protections similar to our own to help level costs.
Tariffs as a bargaining tool make sense. Tariffs as a policy tool are idiotic.
There is no such thing as a bargaining chip that you cannot use. If Trump actually believes tariffs to be worse for America than the status quo then he can't use them as a chip because the other side will know he will not play it. It's Obama's red line all over again.
No if I want them to take me seriously I have to believe that passing a big tariff on Chinese goods is a GOOD policy, maybe not the BEST policy, but perfectly acceptable to me. Only then can Trump say, go ahead, make my day, I will take great joy in slapping a 35% tariff on you assholes (or more polite words to that effect). Thus, if the Chinese will not give me what I want (i.e. the BEST policy) then I will opt for what is simply GOOD.
The Chinese are NOT initially going to give Trump what he wants, so he will have to opt for the tariffs, at least for a time. The burned hand teaches best, and the Chinese need to know he is serious. They are going to need to see it play out to know he is serious. Right now nobody knows for sure who is going to be hurt worse, us of or them. Trump has to be willing to find out. Otherwise he has no leverage. He knows this as a master deal maker.
It is critically important that Trump's supporters (i.e. YOU) clearly see that they were voting FOR a tariff and have no problem with this. This gives Trump the domestic support he needs to convince the Chinese that he CAN carry out his tariff threat.