12-22-2016, 02:04 AM
(12-20-2016, 11:42 PM)Warren Dew Wrote:Mike has got it right as far as what Trump will need to do to eventually make a new deal with China. He's going to do it with Mexico with Republican and Democratic support. Eric and Bob didn't seem to get the message but I think every borderline Democrat located in between them got the fricken message loud and clear.(12-20-2016, 11:01 PM)Classic-Xer Wrote:(12-20-2016, 01:06 PM)Mikebert Wrote:I think we already know the nation that he intends to impose tariffs on. You know, the one where Carrier had intended to move another one of its manufacturing plants to until an election result changed things. I have no problem with tariffs being used for an American cause. Do you, or do any true Democrats that are still left, have a problem with using tariffs for an American cause?(12-19-2016, 09:17 PM)Warren Dew Wrote:(12-19-2016, 07:59 PM)Mikebert Wrote: Why would they do that? What leverage would Trump have besides tariffs--which you seem to be ruling out.
Tariffs as a bargaining tool make sense. Tariffs as a policy tool are idiotic.
There is no such thing as a bargaining chip that you cannot use. If Trump actually believes tariffs to be worse for America than the status quo then he can't use them as a chip because the other side will know he will not play it. It's Obama's red line all over again.
No if I want them to take me seriously I have to believe that passing a big tariff on Chinese goods is a GOOD policy, maybe not the BEST policy, but perfectly acceptable to me. Only then can Trump say, go ahead, make my day, I will take great joy in slapping a 35% tariff on you assholes (or more polite words to that effect). Thus, if the Chinese will not give me what I want (i.e. the BEST policy) then I will opt for what is simply GOOD.
The Chinese are NOT initially going to give Trump what he wants, so he will have to opt for the tariffs, at least for a time. The burned hand teaches best, and the Chinese need to know he is serious. They are going to need to see it play out to know he is serious. Right now nobody knows for sure who is going to be hurt worse, us of or them. Trump has to be willing to find out. Otherwise he has no leverage. He knows this as a master deal maker.
It is critically important that Trump's supporters (i.e. YOU) clearly see that they were voting FOR a tariff and have no problem with this. This gives Trump the domestic support he needs to convince the Chinese that he CAN carry out his tariff threat.
Who is more reliant upon who economically? I'd say that they're more reliant upon us than we are reliant upon them economically. What has the Communist Chinese economy been able to endure and survive up to this point as far as major challenges as far as its history goes? Communist China hasn't been around as long as we have. Anyone know? We know what the American economy has been able to endure and survive up to this point in our history.
You do realize that Carrier was going to move their plant to Mexico, not China, right?
China's communist economy was able to endure a lot, but their economy isn't communist any more. Their current capitalist economy has only been around for a few decades, and is showing signs of strain as growth slows.