(01-04-2017, 12:31 PM)David Horn Wrote:(01-03-2017, 06:09 PM)SomeGuy Wrote: No, Dave, the time horizon is not my only issue. Moore's Law is already showing signs of stalling, resource limits/AGW/assorted Limits to Growth stuff WILL begin to impact the economy over the course of the 21st century, global supply chains and capital markets may not survive indefinitely, and improvement in technology alone != THE END OF ALL JOBS FOREVERS <cue appropriate cat emoticon here>.
Unless we develop quantum computing, which I believe we will at some time in the not-distant future, Moore's Law must have an upper limit ... but so what? We already have plenty of horsepower in the hardware we currently deploy. As the HW guys always note: they build it and the SW guys waste it.
So most of the development work is systems level (voice recognition and vision being the two most important). We already know how to do expert systems, and AI just needs the systems interface to complete the circle. Since these systems don't have to be general purpose, much of the complexity can be eliminated along with the cost. In any case, global supply chains are not really an issue. The HW just needs some silicon, plastic and a bit of gold and silver. The rest is simpler than a toaster: circuit board material, aluminum for heat dissipation and whatever material for physical structure. Only the SW requires a lot high level input, and we're already nearing the point where the SW is "adequate" as-is. The rest is just a version of what we already have.
What makes you think that average run-of-the-mill humans can compete with machines that are cheap to build, almost certainly self-maintaining and available 24/7? Add to that, specialty machines will be better at what they do than any human, no matter how talented.
Emphasis mine. Is the SW adequate as is, or does it require more development work? What's the power consumption like? How on earth can something be "self-maintaining" and also "simpler than a toaster"? Is all this stuff going to be manufactured here? Will it manufacturer itself? What about liability concerns? Consumer uptake? Is machine-grown food today more or less prestigious than low-tech alternatives? Are people really going to want interact solely with robots all day, for every task? Are these only going to be software systems or industrial robots, or are they going to be walking around, grooming dogs, carrying groceries? How much will these things cost? Is everything going to be free in the glorious communist paradise of progress? Materials, energy, land, time, etc?
These predictions were being made when you were a child, older even. It was always just 20 years out. No, seriously, I have a book on the history of cybernetics as an idea sitting on my bookshelf, I can supply quotes from people you'd heard of talking about the imminent (1960s) end of work. The gains made between the Wright brother's maiden flight and the Apollo Moon landings were equally impressive in their day, and a lot of wild predictions by serious people were made. Where are the flying cars? Jet Packs? Personal helicopters? Rocket ships to Mars? FTL travel?
Look, I am sure amazingly clever things will be done within my lifetime, but all I am hearing right now is a lot of overheated rhetoric recycled from the Space Age coming from people spending too much time reading press releases and not enough time actually thinking things through.