Report Card for Donald Trump

[David Horn]

(01-07-2017, 04:18 PM)SomeGuy Wrote:

Mikebert Wrote:You don't need many people to manufacture, program, and service the machines.  We already have people doing these things and they do not make up a majority of the workforce.  With automation they will become more productive and so will be able to support more and more robots. [/size][/color]

Yes, but the income those people have pays for plumbers, restaurants, clothes, haircuts, etc.  And many of the goods we consume presently are not necessarily produced by machines here at home, but large numbers of people working in factories in Shenzhen and Guangzhou.  While bringing those jobs back on shore would lead to a net reduction in total employment, it would lead to an increase in jobs HERE, which would then pay for more haircuts, plumbers, electricians, etc. Subject to the inevitable caveat that there could be an impact on consumption here from a rise in prices... Or so the going arguments for past several decades goes.  I think its political currency has faded.

Your argument is fine, until you made this statement.  Any automation will ultimately lead to fewer jobs unless a even greater gain in GDP is created, which is unlikely in this scenario.  Instead, you get a reduction in exporting jobs that may more than offset the gains from on-shoring.  The bugaboo is still technology.  This is the real challenge.  How is this disruption scenario accommodated as the destructive part consistently outpaces the creative part? 

Remember, self-replicating machines are already well underway for applications in space.  Why assume that this is the only use they will have?  Once machines can reproduce, the value of human labor drops almost to nothing.  We better be ready a long time before we get there.