Report Card for Donald Trump

[Warren Dew]

(01-16-2017, 09:56 AM)SomeGuy Wrote:

(01-16-2017, 01:56 AM)Warren Dew Wrote: Incidentally, in case you thought my comment about the singularity was serious, it's not.  However, while we may not be getting flying cars, we might at least get supersonic planes back:

https://techcrunch.com/2017/01/12/boom-s...-airliner/

I'm not sure how much good that does for jobs, but if the technology trickles down to coach and not just business class, it would be a nice improvement to standard of living.

Color me skeptical.  Commercial aviation is not exactly a booming business these days, even after all of the consolidations, and fuel costs are both the major expense and directly connected to top speeds.  Passenger capacity seems a little low, too, no?

I love reading techblogs, but there are so many pitfalls between lab/prototype/startup/actually viable business that I am always, as I said, skeptical.

I first saw it in a Guardian article where the spin was "this is how Branson is getting supersonic capability".  I just chose the tech blog article to link because it has more detail about the technology.  I hadn't been thinking about how the source being a tech blog would color the judgement of how likely it is to happen - sorry.

Branson has been trying to provide supersonic service for some time; he tried to buy the remaining Concordes from British Air when British Air stopped flying them when the internet bubble burst.  That's why I view this as credible.  This company is connected to his Space Ship One venture, which is less likely actually to offer paid service, but which has relevant technology.

The plane is sized to offer the same number of seats as a 747 business class.  They are targeting a 30% improvement over Concorde fuel burn - one could hope 50 years improvement in technology might provide that - which would support pricing the same as Virgin's transatlantic business class.  Capex would be higher, but I could see Branson paying extra at the beginning to get the technology off the ground.

If it goes into service and is a success, I could definitely see the technology improving to the point where all air travel becomes supersonic.  Supersonic flight is not inherently less fuel efficient on a per mile basis, just on a per hour basis.

Of course, the crisis is going to intervene here at some point, which could cause a problem.