Quote:I first saw it in a Guardian article where the spin was "this is how Branson is getting supersonic capability". I just chose the tech blog article to link because it has more detail about the technology. I hadn't been thinking about how the source being a tech blog would color the judgement of how likely it is to happen - sorry.
No worries, just pointing out the same thing you did with the MIT Technology Review thing.
Quote:Branson has been trying to provide supersonic service for some time; he tried to buy the remaining Concordes from British Air when British Air stopped flying them when the internet bubble burst. That's why I view this as credible. This company is connected to his Space Ship One venture, which is less likely actually to offer paid service, but which has relevant technology.
Don't get me wrong, I think all that stuff is cool, but I wonder what technology you'd think Space Ship One has that would translate into affordable supersonic commercial jets?
Quote:The plane is sized to offer the same number of seats as a 747 business class. They are targeting a 30% improvement over Concorde fuel burn - one could hope 50 years improvement in technology might provide that - which would support pricing the same as Virgin's transatlantic business class. Capex would be higher, but I could see Branson paying extra at the beginning to get the technology off the ground.
Capex would be substantially higher, and I don't think Branson would be able or willing to eat that indefinitely. Airplanes are already pretty optimized to maximize fuel efficiency, it's a major cost, and I don't think arbitrary improvements are in the cards. Even the addition of laminar flow control and blended-wing bodies wouldn't take you up more than 20% or so. You're still pushing an object through the air.
Quote:If it goes into service and is a success, I could definitely see the technology improving to the point where all air travel becomes supersonic.
That's a lotta "if"s.
Quote:Supersonic flight is not inherently less fuel efficient on a per mile basis, just on a per hour basis.
Yes, it is. Fuel use is largely a function drag, and drag is a function of speed. In addition, the drag coefficient increases significantly after about Mach 0.8, pushing up fuel consumption dramatically.
It's not that it is impossible to fly past the sound barrier, I just question whether it is possible to do so cheaply.
But what would I know?