01-16-2017, 01:40 PM
(01-14-2017, 11:42 AM)SomeGuy Wrote:(01-14-2017, 11:34 AM)David Horn Wrote: ... The unresolved question is: how much productivity is needed to meet all the demands of the public, assuming the public is the entire world's population? That's the limit. We can't know the limit for sure, but we can see indications that the rate of gain is slowing. Still unresolved: is that a pause in the curve or the new trend?
Yeah, and I posted up a follow-link that seemed to suggest that it is a reasonable assumption. As for your questions, are we assuming demand is static (this goes back to something I was saying before about new wants)? As for your bit on productivity, you're going to have to untangle that for me a bit, Dave.
Productivity gains have been driven by better practices, much of that derived from the systems, industrial and process engineering that began in earnest during WWII. Refinements continue, but most are now tied to the other trend: technology enhancements. We're just stating to see what big data has to offer, so I'll demur on what impact that may have. The rest involves doing more faster using Moore's Law to improve the ability to do it. There are still things that have remained in the Sci-Fi realm, because the technology isn't there yet. At some point, the ability to produce exceeds any potential demand.
You do make a point about new products and services that emerge because they can. Do you think that most of them are really economic drivers rather than frills we can easily do without? The current fascination with artisanal everything is getting a bit tiresome. Will any future trend be better?
Intelligence is not knowledge and knowledge is not wisdom, but they all play well together.