Report Card for Donald Trump

[SomeGuy]

(01-24-2017, 04:22 PM)Mikebert Wrote:

(01-24-2017, 04:07 PM)SomeGuy Wrote: I find the prospect of a nuclear first strike between two powers like China and the US to be implausible.  Neither of their forces are on a hair-trigger alert, there is nothing like the Red Army poised to push through Western Europe to the sea within a few days right now, etc..  Seriously, detail me the scenario that leads directly from something like Taiwan to either country launching their missiles at the other in the full knowledge of a corresponding attack on their own facilities and populations, and explain to me why it would be the only outcome.

I agree.  You were implying this, by pointing to 1914.

I am sorry I gave you that impression.  I meant the reference to refer solely to countries backing themselves into a war because their "defensive" actions were perceived by their rivals as intolerable aggressions, and vice versa.

Well, that, and reports suggesting that in the light of emerging A2/AD capabilities on both sides and the geographic layout of the Western Pacific, a conventional conflict between the two could resemble "trench warfare at sea".  The report looks at fully developed capacities in a 2040 timeframe, but I think aspects of it could be ported to an earlier period.  Or not.

The analysis you complemented me on earlier was simply a list of things that are going on now.  I don't think they preclude a more conventional conflict a little later on, and I don't think that conflict would necessarily escalate to a full-on nuclear exchange.  Probably wouldn't, really, for much the same reason the Korean War didn't.