Report Card for Donald Trump

[SomeGuy]

(01-25-2017, 05:41 PM)Mikebert Wrote:

(01-24-2017, 04:07 PM)SomeGuy Wrote: Seriously, detail me the scenario that leads directly from something like Taiwan to either country launching their missiles at the other in the full knowledge of a corresponding attack on their own facilities and populations, and explain to me why it would be the only outcome.

The issue is simple. What is the point of engaging in a military conflict in which you cannot win?  Suppose Trump decided to blockcade these islands.  Can you show a path where he can win?  I don't see it, and if I see this, so do the Chinese.  They can keep pushing until Trump gives up, after all, is he going to end civilization over some fucking islands in the South China Sea?  The US considers the Carribean an American lake--what's the difference?

And this is the problem.  In the old days such issues would be resolved by all-out great power coalition wars (read Kennedy's book The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers).  You can't do that now, an all-out conflict would go nuclear. So the great powers resorted to a minuet, with proxy wars to make their point.  Most of the great powers, (except for the strongest two) got a clue and pulled out, seeing it was a fools game.  Does China want to play this game?  No!  They want what I would want, sure things--like the Spratley's.  (The islands no, the principle, yes).

I literally just finished rereading Paul Kennedy.  You might want to read it again.  The middle powers tried desperately to hold on to their status, they dropped out because they could no longer compete.

You keep referencing an escalation to nuclear weapons, but you don't explain why one would occur.  Flashpoints in the region are Taiwan, the SCS, Diaoyu/Senkaku islands, the Korean Penisula, issues of trade, all overlying the root issues of "fear, honor, and interest", per Thucydides.  All of those things are visibly factors in US/China tensions, and tensions between China and many of its neighbors.  What would those sorts of conflicts look like?  Nuclear launches within minutes/days of first contact?  I don't think so.