Report Card for Donald Trump

[Mikebert]

Some Guy Wrote:Nope.  The Great Depression had a severe dip in '37, the big crash for the Civil War turning didn't happen until 1873, the 1780s were characterized by serious financial troubles, etc.  This is not a rule.

It’s not a rule.  The 1932 financial crisis produced the reordering of secular institutions that defines a 4T (see Generations p 71).  This reordering and those achieved by the prior 4Ts are acknowledged by some scholars fundamental changes in the American polity. The 2008 financial crisis has not done this, at least not here in the US. So, if another such event occurs it could have the potential to produce such a reordering.  Were it to do so then it would be a better candidate for a crisis trigger than 2008 according the definition of a 4T as given on page 71 of Generations.
 

Quote:Although, outside a few cities over the last few years, these mass killings have coincided with a broad-based decline in the crime rate.  Doesn't mean they aren't significant.

I didn’t say they were significant.  I simply said they were far more violent than the very mild protests we have seen in recent years.
 

Quote:You're right.  We'll see what comes of it.  We can tell the significance of it more in a few years.

Maybe, maybe not.  We haven't really learned the significance of these last two.  It can take a long time for consequences to play out. Remember all previous 4Ts were identified as such with many decades of hindsight.  S&H provides zero guidance for assessing such a period in real time.
 

Quote:Wasn't there.  Reading some articles from the era I can see the similarities, but I also can't find evidence of 1968/2016 style riots afterwards, either.

It is not valid to lump 1968 and 2016 riots in the same category.  The 1992 Rodney King race riots (3 events 62 dead) dwarf anything that happened in 2016, and were themselves considerably less than late 1960’s race riots. (1966-68 riots 29 events, 148 dead).  There was something like 1900 incidents of terrorism in the late 1960’s and early 1970’s.  In addition were the many hundreds of bombings carried out by domestic terrorists.