Report Card for Donald Trump

[SomeGuy]

Quote:It’s not a rule.  The 1932 financial crisis produced the reordering of secular institutions that defines a 4T (see Generations p 71).  This reordering and those achieved by the prior 4Ts are acknowledged by some scholars fundamental changes in the American polity. The 2008 financial crisis has not done this, at least not here in the US. So, if another such event occurs it could have the potential to produce such a reordering.  Were it to do so then it would be a better candidate for a crisis trigger than 2008 according the definition of a 4T as given on page 71 of Generations.

Well, strictly speaking, the crisis began in 1929, and the response didn't occur until 1933, with a relapse in 1937, and the issue wasn't truly fixed until the enormous buildup during WWII.  T4T, as I recall, suggested that the 4T had multiple parts: a catalyst, which led to an abrupt change in mood but no changes right away, a possible Great Devaluation/what-have-you leading to a bottoming out, a Regeneracy, then a Climax.

Quote:I didn’t say they were significant.  I simply said they were far more violent than the very mild protests we have seen in recent years. 

The level of domestic violence we've seen recently is truly far below that during the Awakening, which was enormous in historical terms.

Quote:Maybe, maybe not.  We haven't really learned the significance of these last two.  It can take a long time for consequences to play out. Remember all previous 4Ts were identified as such with many decades of hindsight.  S&H provides zero guidance for assessing such a period in real time.

Beyond the pieces I outline above, this is correct.  Which is why I try and reserve judgement one way or another until things have had more time to play out.

Quote:It is not valid to lump 1968 and 2016 riots in the same category.  The 1992 Rodney King race riots (3 events 62 dead) dwarf anything that happened in 2016, and were themselves considerably less than late 1960’s race riots. (1966-68 riots 29 events, 148 dead).  There was something like 1900 incidents of terrorism in the late 1960’s and early 1970’s.  In addition were the many hundreds of bombings carried out by domestic terrorists.

I dunno, the increase in murders in cities like Chicago and Baltimore after BLM protests against the police have been quite sizable.  But no, we are still not there yet.