(02-07-2017, 06:46 PM)SomeGuy Wrote: I doubt it, for this reason: What would a "successful conclusion" of the WoT look like?One that allowed Trump to be succeeded by another Republican.
Quote:Was Trump running as the successor of Dubya?Trump was perceived as the anti-Obama. And if successful he will be seen as a corrective to Obama, not Bush. I would note Trump's administration is taking a tough line with Iran--#2 on Bush's Axis of Evil agenda. In that way they are acting as Bush's successor.
As for the election, the biggest difference between Bush and Trump was what Trump said about foreign policy versus what Bush did. But Bush also ran against overseas adventurism, just like Trump. Once in office we found Bush's advisors did want a humbler foreign policy; they wanted war with Iraq. Ditto for Trump, except this time its Iran. Bush ran on tax cuts and deregulation--so did Trump. Trump did show some differences from Bush (e.g. harder line on immigration), but so did Bush from Reagan (e.g. "compassionate conservatism").
The differences are small and likley would not be visible from a distance of 50 years. Remember assignments of previous 4Ts have been from a considerable temporal distance. Little stuff like that isn't going to be factored into such assessments any more than the Ostend Manifesto is today.
As you pointed out if there is to be a 4T, its going to have to be pretty obvious like the other ones. Otherwise Occam's Razor would have that none occurred at all.