Report Card for Donald Trump

[SomeGuy]

(02-07-2017, 07:51 PM)Mikebert Wrote:

Some Guy Wrote:Sure, if you are looking for a 4T that's 12 years long.  If so, that would be the place to date it.

Suppose your prediction comes through except for the Democratic implementation of universal health insurance (a tall order that may not ever be possible in America).  Suppose the Democrat is just another run-of-the-mill Dem like Clinton or Obama who serves two terms. Why would a 2008 4T start be favored more than other dates?  One could just as soon have the 4T start in 2016 and extend through the Republican who follows the two-term Dem, i.e. 2016-2044. 
This particular 4T would overlap the Macrodecision phase and could see the end of US hegemony.  Then you would have two eventful “anchors” to the 4T, whatever Trump does that gets 3 GOP terms over 2016-2028 as the first one and the resolution of the hegemony question as the second. 

Several 4T’s have had this two anchor structure: the Glorious had Metacomet’s war and the rebellions in the 1670’s followed by the Glorious Revolution itself 10-15 years later.  The Revolutionary 4T had the war & installation of a failed regime, and then after some years, the solution to the failed regime in the Constitution.  The Civil War had the war and then the Reconstruction.  The Depression & WW II had the Depression, the failure of the New Deal to completely solve the Depression problem, and its resolution by massively radical New Dealer policies during WW II.

Which would tend to move away from the generational model.  And the 80-year rule, independent of that.  And at that point, why are you using S & H terminology at all?