Report Card for Donald Trump

[David Horn]

(02-07-2017, 03:11 PM)Mikebert Wrote: ...  If Trump undoes all Obama did, then Obama ceases to be a consequential president. He won't even be consequential in the Hoover sense since he failed to lose in 2012.  If Trump fails to undo the ACA for example, and then becomes consequential in the Hoover sense by dragging down his party in an epic defeat in 2020, allowing a Democratic to come in, implement the public option and begin the gradual transition to single payer then Obama will remain relevant because the post-2020 policies will be continuation of what he started, sort of how Nixon began the shift of the GOP to a red party, while Reagan built on that.

But suppose Trump is successful, wins a second term and is followed by a Republican.  Obama will look like another 3T president like Clinton or Bush.

And then suppose Trump undoes most of what Obama did, serves two turns, if followed by a Democrat who undoes much of what he did, and so on. In that case Trump could join the parade of 3T presidents who can't make anything they implement stick, unless the WOT is still going on, in which case, it would be Bush(!) as the most consequential, simply because some of his bad policy is still stinking up the joint.

Mike, why is failure to cement change not a potential 4T result as much as success?  The actions were still taken, even though they didn't have legs.  The battle was fought to a draw ... that happens sometimes.  I agree that the result will be muddy at best, but the back-and-forth will eventually end, and an unsettled but resigned mood will have to prevail.  It will be a somber 1T, but no worse than those endured by the losers of earlier 4Ts.  Humans only have so much tolerance for upheaval.