The Coronavirus

[David Horn]

(05-01-2020, 04:01 PM)Warren Dew Wrote:

(05-01-2020, 07:44 AM)David Horn Wrote: That looks like a success story to me.

It is.  It's just that the facts aren't consistent with the explanation of why it's a success story that you linked to.  For example, high levels of testing can't be why South Korea was successful, because when you account for the fact that it takes a couple weeks for actual new cases to be detectable in test results, South Korea didn't get to high levels of testing until after their problem was already fixed.

Here's a correct explanation of why South Korea is a success story:

https://www.quora.com/What-did-South-Kor...Warren-Dew

You can tell it's correct because I used it to make predictions of the course of Covid-19 in the US, and those predictions turned out to be correct.

The biggest thing South Korea "did right" was to close their schools - for other reasons, of course - before they realized Covid-19 was a big enough problem to act on.  The next biggest was voluntary mask use by the population.

They did all the right things, because they had experience with doing them less well.  Testing: they had kits our within 2 weeks after they got a sample of the virus RNA. The masking and contact tracing were also aggressive.  Feel free to nitpick about details, but their success is as dramatic as our failure.