The Coronavirus

[Eric the Green]

(05-03-2020, 02:29 AM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote:

(05-02-2020, 10:42 PM)Classic-Xer Wrote: I get the jest of theory. I'm not much of a book reader these days. So, I'll have to pass on reading up and getting more familiar with the works of Strauss and Howe at this point. To be honest, the anomaly that skewed the generations pretty killed the credibility of S&H theory in my opinion. The 1950's had little to no resemblance of the gilded age. The world had changed/advanced significantly. My grandmother's and grandfather's were born when the use of horses and buggies and heavy manual labor to do most everything was still common.

I don't believe that we will return to the Gilded Age. We are far to advanced to return to the Gilded Age. We might have to part ways with  some blue  states who seem more likely to be heading that direction anyway but that's their problem. I'd say the combination of World War I, The Great Depression and World II significantly transformed most of  Europe. So, I'd say that's what it would take to significantly transform the US at this point. I'm not sure what the last question pertains to? COVID19? Yes, I believe that we will eventually get back to the way we were before the COVID19 crisis.

Hmm.

The culture that was the 13 colonies has changed much over the years.  It has not changed steadily.  It goes in fits and starts.  The bulk of the change has occurred in the crisis.  It occurs not the full prophet - nomad - civic generation, but in the five or so years after the trigger and regeneracy when a profound challenge to the culture manifests.

That change is profound and permanent.  One of the predictions made in the S&H books is that the change is always greater than what is anticipated going in.  If you look at the difference between the unravelling culture and the following high, the difference is extreme.

There is no going back.

COVID 19 is a unique trigger.  It has generally been a big violent event marking the beginning of a crisis war, though there was the stock market crash.

Now I have always taken the warning that the change is always more profound than anticipated as a personal challenge.  I generally anticipate a larger change than even most progressives.  The way the game is played well is to anticipate big.  

If a conservative thinks linearly, that the culture will remain the same or will continue the trends of the unraveling, one can quietly snicker.  Change is coming.  One might have to be patient, but it is coming.  It is now here.

I missed.  I anticipated the blue progressive Democratic agenda so long debated.  I did not anticipate the Coronavirus.  Who could?  OK.  That is what we’ve got.  During the other three turnings (high, awakening, unravelling) and even the bulk of the crisis, things don’t change.  For one reason or another, the culture was stuck.  We are just entering the heart of the crisis.  The regeneracy should complete as the progressives take charge of the federal government.  After that, change, big time.  Again, permanent and profound.

Hanging around a T4T forum can be kind of tedious for a progressive.  Sure, there is many a time when we are in the majority and dominate the conversation.  But still, the culture is stuck.  it just sits there.  Nothing moves.  The conservatives can just sit there and propose that what is should continue, and so mote it be.

For a few years we get to run amok.  It might not be pretty, but things will change.

If you don't like it, well, most people don't like a crisis.  Not to worry, the high is coming.

That's right, as I have said too. Once a 4T really gets going, we could get more change than we anticipated. Like was said on Ken Burns' Civil War series, people didn't feel like they lived in the same country after the war.

I did forecast plague for the years after 2012 in my speeches and video, so I got it right to that extent. And I said in my talk in January 2020 that March would see financial and health challenges that would express the big crisis expected for that month. But I was not so sure that the specific coronavirus crisis would be as big as it is. Whether it is a permanent 4T trigger may not be certain; it depends on whether the mood change and behavior change is deep enough, or whether we just go back to normal. The fact that we have other crises still boiling too, makes it likely that the 4T will deepen, even if the virus is not looked upon as the trigger in the future.