The Coronavirus

[sbarrera]

(05-24-2020, 12:46 PM)Mikebert Wrote: Here is a plot of the death rate per day per million pop in what I call the "Hot Zone" (NY, NJ, MA, MI, PA, IL & CT) and the rest of the country. As a point of comparison, the 2009 flu (a bad flu year) saw 61000 deaths over six months, which works out to 1.1 deaths/million/day.

Three observations:

(1) the death rate in the 2 regions is very different (the hot zone scale is 10X that for the rest of the country)

(2) the profile shapes are different. In the Hot Zone the death rate rose to a peak and then has fallen off dramatically. In the rest of the country, death rates rose to a plateau about a tenth of the size of the Hot Zone peak and has stayed there.

(3) Even after the large drop in the Hot Zone, the death rates there are still much higher than in the rest of the country.

Discuss.

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Seems the lockdown measure are more neccessary in the hot zone, and should be continued. They could be lessened in the 'rest zone'. The state where I live, Pennsylvania, basically has this, by color coding the counties as either red for 'stay at home' or yellow for 'aggressive mitigation.' The red counties cluster around Philly and the yellow counties are pretty much the rest of the state. Although the latest news is that we are all going to be yellow by June 5 and some will go green, where there are still restrictions but business could return in basically reduced form.