05-28-2020, 08:14 AM
(05-28-2020, 07:06 AM)David Horn Wrote: Not mentioned recently, but still to the point: it's getting warmer. Let's assume that temperature has no direct effect on the virus, it certainly does on the people -- cooped-up for weeks and sick of it. As we move our lives outdoors more and more, the ease of infection drops in tandem. That will reverse in the Fall, so let's not get too far over our skis. Apparently, that's exactly the case in Brazil, where the seasons are changing in reverse to ours, and COVID-190 infections are rising rapidly.
I'm not as sure as you are that infection is harder outdoors than indoors, especially if you are spending most of the indoors time isolated. Certainly in the Pacific Rim nations that have done the best, people wear masks outdoors as much as indoors.
I do agree, however, that there is a seasonal and latitude effect; I don't think it's a coincidence that southern states are generally doing better than northern states. It might be due to temperature, or it might be due to absolute humidity, or it might be due to people getting out and getting vitamin D, which is critical to immune system function.
The idea that the Brazilian outbreak is only happening now because of seasonal effects is interesting. I think it's more likely that the outbreak there is delayed because of a lower level of international travel, though. The fact that they are having an outbreak despite being tropical suggests to me that mitigation measures are much worse there than in more developed countries.