The Coronavirus

[Eric the Green]

(06-14-2020, 10:18 AM)pbrower2a Wrote:

(06-13-2020, 07:39 AM)David Horn Wrote:

(06-12-2020, 06:25 PM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote:

(06-12-2020, 02:00 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: The ecological and global warming aspects CANNOT be left out of the blue agenda and the crisis resolution in this 4T. Science makes that clear. Solutions must be instituted in this 4T, or they will be too late. Even so, further push will be needed in the 2T and I agree with your prediction about it.

I strongly sympathize.  People are being disappointed in advance of Biden.  We don't know how he will balance the economy and the planet.  We don't know if his VP choice will step up.  Still, I can't see what other than ecology is on deck for the awakening.

Anyone?

Biden is a quintessential Silent.  He's all about pouring oil on troubled water, and a lot less about taking a stand.  Unfortunately, as desirable as his sympathetic position is, it mends the heart but has zero impact on actual problems. That said, you can't doubt that he's fully sincere.  Look at his personal history.  But he's not the right person to hold that job today.  Worse, it's looking more likely that his VP choice will be someone like him in focus: healing wounds, not building better institutions.  It will be a lost opportunity.

1. It is better that people have diminished expectations during a Crisis Era. Economic hardships are real, and if they do happen it is best that people not seek an easy way out. Military disasters are most likely to be catastrophic to those societies that welcome war as a source of glory than to those that see war with trepidation. Survival comes first, and that allows one's nation to preserve necessary characteristics of that society. War will afford plenty of opportunity for glory without anyone seeking it. In the end, a society that did not want the war might succeed because it can impose a workable peace. The Axis powers failed to no small extent because they were unable to achieve any workable peace; contrast the British and Americans. This Crisis Era seems to have a horrible virus that kills on the scale of a bungled war... and consider that the virus SARS-2 (COVID-19) is itself a demonized enemy in the same sense that Hitler, Tojo, and Mussolini were in America in early 1942. 

That is already 120,000 deaths in the United States alone. Whatever one's ideology one has every excuse for hating a horrific virus, much as Americans had cause for loathing Osama bin Laden. On its worst days COVID-19 killed as many Americans as did the horrors of 9/11.Most Americans were delighted with the gangland-style hit upon Osama bin Laden. The difference between Obama's hit upon bin Laden and the hit that Al Capone did upon his gangland rivals are that  (1) Obama isn't a gangster, but could learn even from Chicago gangsters if such fit his needs -- and America's need, and (2) sometimes a national leader must use the mailed fist under the velvet glove; one needs no mailed fist for dealing with Angela Merkel, but it is the only fit way of dealing with Osama bin Laden, and (3) that if some other medium-to-major power experiences such a terrorist attack and must strike similarly, then a similar gangland hit is precisely what we would expect. Not that anyone would commandeer jetliners as weapons of destruction and turn those against high-profile buildings in Beijing or Shanghai... not even Langley, Virginia (home of the Central Intelligence Agency) would be a safe haven.       

Are we truly sure that COVID-19 is fading? Some people are cautious enough to still be wearing masks into public places. In my case that allows me to enjoy the most normal life possible without feeling guilty. I can go to the store, gas station, doctor's office the teller window, or the fast-food take-out window. What can I not do? I still lack the confidence to go into a table-service restaurant. For the first time in several months I have gone to a bookstore and a thrift store. I look forward to getting a haircut. For the first time in a long time I will feel that I will be getting my money's worth in a hair cut. But I digress here.

What happens if we get a second wave? I see plenty of reckless people not wearing masks. May they get away with it without causing great harm.  

Crisis eras are dangerous times, and it is best that if one is on a trail and starts to see evidence of a bear or cougar that one turn back rather than investigating the reality of the bear or cougar. Mitigation of risk is an essential part of good leadership. 

2. We have not yet had a Silent President; indeed we have had a President two generations (OK, Biden is born in 1942 and Obama is born in 1961, but Obama is definitely not a Boomer). We got a taste of a mature Reactive characteristic of a post-Crisis era as President in Obama. We may need an Adaptive President to resolve some issues that we never resolved. It is unfortunate that we never had a TR-like President and probably won't for another forty years or so, and Biden may be too late to have the strongest effect.   

3. Donald Trump is a disaster. The only good emerging from his catastrophic Presidency is that we are discovering what we cannot tolerate in top leadership. People who may have fallen asleep while a high-school civics teacher droned on about the rule of law and of checks and balances are finding out exactly that -- the hard way. We also are learning the hard way that character matters greatly in political as well as commercial and cultural leadership. Trump trivializes the need for expertise, overrating his competence even in medicine.

Consider that the economic meltdown that started in 2007 was almost entirely a consequence of amoral decisions by economic leaders. 

As Donald Trump sees his chances of re-election fading through honest means, I can only imagine the ruthlessness of any method that he has of getting re-elected ... if he wants to be re-elected.

Joe Biden is definitely not Trump. That is good enough reason to support his Presidential bid. 

4. Joe Biden may be a one-term President for the right reasons.  Age. If he sees himself becoming less reliable due to mental or physical decay he may resign for reasons of health. Anyone past 75 holding a responsible position is operating on borrowed time. Biden seems to have done much right; he seems far fitter intellectually and physically than Trump. 

-- MY TREPIDATION --  


I know, I know, I know. The scariest thing about Joe Biden is that he is old enough that despite a long career in public office (he was a US Senator from age 30 to age 66, and then a Vice-President for eight years... and not a passive Veep) he has some superficial resemblance to President James Buchanan who despite his qualifications was not up to the rapid change in political reality in America. Buchanan is by far the worst of all Adaptive Presidents. Yes, things are moving rapidly in this Crisis. 

Could events overtake him? They have certainly overtaken Donald Trump.

You tend to divide the generational lines rather sharply. This does have it's rationale; it's what the authors did too. You do this with Biden, as you do with Obama. Many of us have recognized the astrological concept of "cusps" though, even without knowing that's where it comes from. The boundary lines may not be that sharp. Obama and Biden both have boomer/prophet qualities. Biden is born only just over a month prior to the S&H dividing line between Silent and Boomer. So is he really fully and entirely a Silent? Especially since he identified himself with the Boomer generation and acted as its spokesman in his earlier years?